Input costs have climbed. Pest pressure has become a complex problem. Seasons feel less predictable than the climate charts might suggest.

At the same time, more and more orchards are entering serious production age. Small decisions made now, will compound into big outcomes over the next decade.

When I sit with macadamia farmers, one theme keeps surfacing:

Orchard blocks are increasingly variable. And for simplicity sake, and ease of management, most decisions are still made as if blocks are uniform as standard.

That gap between reality and response is where margin is lost.

While UAVs and drone-derived data are not the silver bullet we might be hoping for - they do give us something we haven’t really had before at scale: a fast, repeatable way to see and define variability clearly and provide applicable insights that help us to respond at the right level. Not just by block. Often by zone. Sometimes tree by tree.

In this post, I want to unpack how UAV data can help macadamia farmers specifically in turning variability into margin, and share a simple decision loop that makes the data a whole lot more practical.

Variability as the new baseline

A few decades ago, it was perhaps easier to think of a block as a single unit. Climate patterns were arguably more stable. Orchards were younger. Data was limited to what you could see and feel. At best, what you had written in a notebook.

Today, the picture has changed.

Farmers tend to describe it in different ways:

• “This corner pulls us down every year consistently.”

• “That top side looks tired, even when the rest of the block looks fine.”

• “We fix one problem in this block and then another one pops up.”

Climate variability shows up as hotter spells, uneven rainfall, late cold snaps, or thunderstorms that dump 50mm on one part of the farm and almost nothing on another.

Trees do not respond to the average rainfall figure for the month. They respond to what actually happens in their root zone and their microclimate. They respond to the realities of their environment.

Layered on top of the climate factor is pest and disease pressure. As we all know, stressed trees become softer targets. Zones with poor soil, drainage issues, compaction, or inconsistent irrigation start acting as early-warning pockets. Weak areas become hosts for bigger, block-level problems later on. Problems that either spread, or simply impede the farming operation from reaching full potential.

From the ground, this is easy to underestimate. You drive the main road, walk a few rows, and your brain fills in the gaps. The block looks “mostly okay”.

However, from the air, the variation is hard to ignore. It stares you in the face.

Looking at drone data metrics results, different vigour or tree health bands often appear inside the same planting. Tree size is uneven. Thermal patterns reveal hot spots that never show up in a quick visual inspection.

Even in well-managed orchards, hidden variation is usually there if you look for it in some shape or form - it’s the norm, not the exception.

The old mental model of “one block, one decision” is increasingly out of sync with the realities of what is needed in terms of management.

How margin quietly leaks away…

When I talk about margin in this context, I am thinking about far more than the final tons per hectare on farm, or the price per kilogram at the factory. Margin erodes in smaller, quieter ways long before the crop is even harvested and delivered.

Three types of “leakage” stand out.

1. Input inefficiency

If chemicals, fertiliser, and water are applied evenly across a block that is not even, some trees will inevitably receive more than they need and others less than they require. Strong zones are over-serviced. Weak zones are under-serviced.

The invoice does not show this imbalance. The orchard performance does.

2. Timing inefficiency

Late detection is expensive. The longer a pest hot spot, water stress, or nutritional issue is allowed to develop, the more aggressive and costly the intervention tends to be.

Something that comes to mind is how I’ve seen this first hand in the Table Grape industry - particularly in South Africa. Grape vines as we know, being a deciduous crop, farmers need to keep on top of things in their comparatively short growing window. Farmers in areas like the Breede Valley do this extremely well, prioritising pest and disease monitoring along with effective intervention timing.

For those in the Macadamiasphere, working on perennial crops means you would do well to take a leaf from their book. Because getting detection and intervention timing wrong has effects that echo and reverberate into future seasons for years and years.

Spoiler alert: visible symptoms are often the last stage of a process that started months earlier. That’s why I am so in favour of regular and methodical in-field scouting paired with drone surveys - which together are powerful for early detection and making sure you do not miss anything.

3. Confidence inefficiency

When results are uneven, confidence drops. Farmers become cautious about investing / spending. Interventions are delayed or reduced.

In other cases, frustration pushes decisions in the opposite direction, and overcorrection sets in. Also costly.

Thus, uncertainty has a cost of its own. It shows up in slow reactions, conservative plans, or missed opportunities, as well as overcorrection.

None of this is about a lack of effort. It is about visibility, scale, and delivery. You cannot target what you cannot see, and you simply cannot see everything from the ground alone, or by a quick look out the window.

Ken: There is so much to unpack here, and although this post in non-exhaustive, I want to get at least a good amount down in writing to provide you will some solid value, hints and tips, and something to think about - so bear with me.

Thanks for reading!

Every tree counts: Why per-tree thinking is worth the effort

Macadamias are long-term assets. Each tree is a capital investment that should ideally pay back over many years. Averages land up causing a blur to that picture.

A block that looks “fine” on a spreadsheet might contain:

• a meaningful minority under real stress,

• a large number sitting on the edge of acceptability,

• a group of trees performing very well, mostly outliers.

If we treat all of them the same, we will always be partly right and partly wrong. Per-tree thinking does not mean managing each tree individually. That would be unrealistic, particularly at scale. It means using tools that help us describe and group trees more accurately so that management can be more precise. UAV data gives us a way to do that without walking every row and guessing.

I cover drone monitoring techniques and strategies for precision scouting and sampling in my book “Drone Data Metrics for Orchard farming”.

You can find a copy here.

What UAV data actually brings to Macadamia orchards

A well-planned UAV survey captures several useful layers in a single flight. In practice, some of the most valuable layers for macadamias are:

• High-resolution RGB imagery
  The “normal colour” view that shows canopy shape, gaps, missing trees, weed pressure, and visible stress signatures. It often reveals spatial patterns that are difficult to see from ground level.

• Multispectral indices such as NDVI or NDRE
  These indices help quantify relative vigour and canopy health. They can highlight subtle declines that do not yet show up clearly in RGB imagery or in yield data.

• Thermal imagery
  Where available, thermal data adds a view of canopy temperature and potential water stress. Hotter zones may point to irrigation shortfalls, distribution problems, or soil constraints.

• Canopy area and volume per tree
  Structural metrics that answer simple but important questions. Is each tree filling the space it has been given. Are there development gaps. Are certain rows lagging.

• Tree counts and stand density
  A reality check for the inventory. Empty spaces and missing trees break the yield potential of a block, no matter how well the remaining trees perform.

Viewed separately, these are data layers. Combined, they form a story about how the orchard is working. With the right sampling strategy and ground-truths, they move from “interesting” to “actionable” in a really big way.

A practical management loop:

The risk with any new data source is that it becomes another dashboard to feel guilty about. To avoid that, I like to keep the core workflow simple:

1. Detect.

2. Prioritise.

3. Act.

4. Verify.

5. Repeat

If a UAV programme supports the first four steps, it is probably adding value. If it does not… it’s nothing more than noise and distraction. Most likely, a poor use of resources. Most definitely, a bunch of missed opportunities. Pairing the right service provider with an in-house tech champion (expertise and/or ambition) will help a ton and make sure there are no regrets come drone survey.

Let’s walk through the management loop steps that will help you to fight variance and make sure you come out on top:

DETECT

The first task is to detect variation and potential issues early.

Examples might include:

• Zones that consistently show lower health (elevated stress) in multispectral maps.

• Thermal patterns that reveal hotter areas (low transpiration) on key days.

• Sections where canopy area is underdeveloped compared with the rest of the block, and vice versa.

• Unexpected decline or missing trees that have slipped through normal checks.

Step 1 is not about diagnosing everything from behind a screen. It’s more about setting up a chain reaction of well-planned management events:

Deciding where to look more closely (see step 2) where to send your best people first and what they should do (step 3) and in quantifying both extent of the problem and any intervention results (step 4) along with how to proceed from there - ie. the follow-up survey (step 5).

PRIORITISE

Once variation has been detected, located, and quantified; the next step is to decide on what matters most. This is where smart sampling helps.

Instead of sending staff or consultants into a block with a generic brief, we can:

• Identify clusters of weaker trees and treat them as distinct zones.

• Select representative trees from different multispectral or thermal bands.

• Mark out high-risk pockets that deserve more frequent checks.

• Create a simple map of “must visit” points for field teams.

The purpose is to avoid treating every part of the orchard (or farm) as equally urgent. Some problems can safely wait a day, or even weeks. Others simply cannot.

ACT

Only now do we act.

Because we’ve already detected (1) and prioritised (2), actions become a whole lot more targeted. That might look like:

• Directing scouting efforts towards flagged clusters instead of walking entire blocks evenly.

• Adjusting irrigation scheduling or pressure in specific zones where thermal and vigour data point to stress.

• Focusing pruning work where canopy structure is holding trees back.

• Revising and refining targeted nutrition plans for the parts of the orchard that consistently underperform.

Farm teams usually feel the difference quickly. Labour and other input resources are spent where they have the best chance of moving the needle.Days are shaped less by routine and a lot more by data (evidence) and focus (action plans).

VERIFY

The final step closes the loop ahead of the next one.

After an intervention, we should ask a basic question: Did it work?

A follow-up UAV flight, combined with field observations, can help answer that. It can show whether canopy temperatures have normalised, whether weak zones are recovering, and whether new hot spots are emerging.

Over multiple seasons, this builds a record.

Patterns become clearer. Conversations with advisers and processors become more grounded. Risk is lowered over time - resilience is naked right in with every new loop. Moreover, investment and spending decisions become much easier to defend.

If you’re a manager, it will feel like you’ve got your whole world in order. What a feeling!

REPEAT

The loop only works if you run it more than once.
It’s meant to be a flywheel; not a one-trick solution.

A single UAV survey and a once-off set of actions will give you a useful snapshot - no doubt about that. However, it will give you neither resilience nor a steady on-going repair for leaking margins. That comes from rhythm. From flying, fixing, re-flying, refining, and re-refining.

Repeating the loop across seasons turns isolated insights into a management habit:

• Detect again; has the pattern shifted?

• Prioritise again; are the same zones still the worst, or have new ones appeared?

• Act again; with sharper, more confident interventions. How can we do better?

• Verify again; capture the impact and feed it back into the next set of decisions.

Over time, “repeat” is where the real value compounds. And who doesn’t love an investment with compound interest?

You start to see the orchard differently. You recognise early warning signs. You know which blocks behave badly under stress and which ones hold steady. You stop reacting and you start pre-empting.

Run this loop often enough and variability stops being a vague threat in the background. It becomes a map. A map you can read, respond to, and use to protect margin when it matters most.

3 familiar situations where UAV data protects margin

To make this more concrete, and as we move closer to the end of the post..

Here are three possible orchard situations where UAV data can make a noticeable difference:

1. The warm corner on the slope

A mature block on a gentle slope has gradually become inconsistent. Yields from the top corner keep sliding, but there are always more urgent issues elsewhere. The problem is labelled “difficult soils” and quietly accepted.

Thermal imagery shows that this corner regularly runs warmer than the rest of the block - low transpiration values. NDRE and NDVI indices confirm it’s also weaker. Follow-up inspections reveal uneven water distribution and compaction from repeated machinery traffic.

Instead of increasing irrigation across the whole block, the team focuses on this specific area. Dripper checks, line repairs, traffic pattern changes, and soil work start to shift the trend. It is not a quick win, but it stops a long, slow decline from becoming a permanent one.

2. The creeping pest problem

On another farm, pest control has become more expensive and less predictable. Scouts are busy, yet damage levels, unsound kernel, and rejection rates are creeping up year after year.

High-resolution UAV imagery and per-tree health metrics reveal that early infestations tend to cluster around specific low-NDRE pockets. Those weak clusters act as starting points, seeding problems into surrounding trees as the season progresses.

With that insight, the scouting plan is reworked. Scouts visit those clusters and their neighbours first. Monitoring becomes more focused and, where needed, control measures are applied slightly earlier in the places that matter most.

The total treated area may not change dramatically, but timing and targeting improve. Over time, that stabilises both cost and quality.

3. The “future block” that cannot wait

A younger planting on the farm is earmarked for the future. Because it is not yet a top earner, and as can often be the case, it tends to live at the bottom of the priority list. The main focus stays on the big, established blocks.

UAV data shows that canopy development in the young block is patchy. Some trees are racing ahead. Others are standing still. A handful of planting spots are empty.

By treating this block as a data priority now rather than later, the team can correct issues while the cost of correction is still relatively low. Planting gaps are filled. Underperforming rows are investigated. Establishment practices are adjusted.

This does not show up directly in this season’s cash flow. But does strengthen the long-term margin story of the farm over time.

Adoption reality: start focused, not perfect

The most common concerns I hear about UAV data are not about whether it is useful. They are about cost, complexity, and the fear of adding “one more system” to already full days.

Those concerns are reasonable.

A practical way forward is to start focused rather than trying to cover everything at once:

• Choose one or two blocks with known variability or suspected hidden issues,

• Schedule a UAV survey at a sensible time in the season,

• Focus on a small set of metrics in year one, such as NDRE zoning, canopy structure, and basic thermal variation,

• Use these outputs to guide a more intentional scouting, agronomy, and irrigation review process,

• Make one or two targeted interventions and verify their effect.

If that small pilot does not improve decision quality, it is a signal to rethink the approach. If it does, it becomes much easier to scale and to integrate into existing workflows.

For those who want a structured framework for this, my book Drone Data Metrics for Orchard Farming is built around exactly these questions. It is not a hardware catalogue. It is a guide to turning drone-derived metrics into real orchard decisions in perennial crops, macadamias included.

From farm to factory: Why this matters beyond the orchard gate

Variability does not vanish once nuts leave the farm. Processors feel it in fluctuating kernel recovery, shifting style profiles, uncertain supply, and more complex sorting challenges.

When UAV data and good farm records come together, they can create a shared language between orchard and factory. Upstream per-tree and per-zone insights can be linked to downstream batch and consignment performance.

Over time, that opens space for:

• Improved forecasting of volume and quality,

• Informed cultivar and block renewal decisions,

• Incentive structures that reward consistent management,

• Closer collaboration on risk and opportunity.

The same tools that protect margin on farm can support more stable, transparent value creation along the macadamia value chain.

An invitation to continue the conversation

If this way of thinking about UAV data and variability resonates with you, and you would like to explore it further, I will be speaking at the AmberMacs Macadamia Expo in February.

The session is titled:

“UAV Data in Macadamia Orchards; Turning Variability into Margin”

We will unpack real orchard examples, walk through practical survey and sampling options, and explore how to plug UAV-derived insights into your existing IPM, irrigation, and canopy management practices without drowning in dashboards.

The organisers will also be giving away three hardcover copies of the book as part of the event prizes. If you would like to discuss how these ideas could apply in your own operation, come and find me at the expo. I will be there to learn as much as to share.

What is one area of variability in your own orchards that you suspect is costing you margin, but you have not yet measured properly?

The thinking starts here, but the real change starts when we take action.

Best regards,
Ken

World (or National) Macadamia Nut Day is observed annually on September 4 - a day dedicated to appreciating the rich, buttery macadamia nut and its cultural journey.

While the exact founding origins are informal rather than institutional, the day has become a global nod to its Australian roots, Hawaiian spread, and nutritional allure -now joined by thriving industries in Brazil, Southern Africa, and Vietnam.

Apart from the impressive macadamia blooms seen all over the southern hemisphere at this time of year, September is a time to reflect on the nut’s remarkable history, celebrate its culinary versatility, and amplify awareness of its health benefits and industry impact.

Global Celebrations: How Macadamia Nut Day Is Observed

Around the world, Macadamia Nut Day is marked with creative culinary expressions and social sharing. Popular observances include:

• Baking macadamia-studded cookies, cakes, or pancakes

• Hosting “nutty bake-offs,” recipe exchanges, or savoury–sweet tasting events

• Sharing macadamia-themed spreads or picnic gatherings (especially in Australia)

• Showcasing recipes on social media using hashtags like #NationalMacadamiaNutDay or #macadamianutday

History of the Nut: Origins to Global Staple

• Aboriginal roots: Indigenous Australians enjoyed macadamias as bush food for centuries.

• Scientific naming: Ferdinand von Mueller honoured John Macadam, a Scottish-Australian chemist, by naming the genus Macadamia in 1857.

• Spread to cultivation: Seeds were planted in Hawaii in 1882 by William H. Purvis, initially as windbreakers for sugar cane. Commercial orchards took root by the early 20th century, with Hawaii leading production for decades.

• South Africa’s rise: By the mid-20th century, macadamia production spread to Southern Africa. South Africa would later become the world’s largest producer, with pioneering work in Nelspruit giving rise to the Nelmac cultivar, bred for local conditions and forming one of the foundations of commercial success.

• Further expansion: From the 1970s onward, macadamia farming spread to neighbouring African countries like Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Eswatini, and more. Additionally, in areas like Brazil and Guatemala - and Vietnam and China - areas developing into important global producers.

• Industry development: During the war, US troops stationed in the Pacific (especially in Hawaii) were introduced to macadamias. Post-war demand surged thanks to returning US troops embracing the nut. When they returned home, demand for the nut grew sharply, helping to fuel its rise in the post-war decades.

  Over time, organisations like the Australian Macadamia Society (established in 1974) has helped to facilitate research, promotion, and trade - cementing macadamias as a truly international industry.

What Sets Macadamias Apart: Special Traits & Uses

Tree and Physiology

Macadamia trees are slow-maturing (7–10 years to bear in terms of full production, 4-7 years for initial, smaller harvests) but can remain productive for more than a century.

They thrive in fertile, well-drained soils, prefer warm climates, and are sensitive to frost and strong winds due to shallow roots.

Cultivation and Harvest

Macadamias bear the world’s hardest nut shell - requiring around 300 psi to crack. Nuts are typically collected after they fall naturally, then processed using specialised equipment. Commercial crack-out rates average around 28% kernel recovery.

Culinary and Other Uses

Their rich, decadent and buttery taste makes macadamias a premium ingredient in chocolate, pastries, seafood dishes, and dairy alternatives. Beyond the kitchen, their oil is used in cosmetics, while the trees also contribute to honey production, and ornamental value.

Health Attributes

Macadamias are high in monounsaturated fats, rich in magnesium, manganese, and antioxidants, and linked to heart health and improved metabolic function.

Read more about macadamia nutrition here: WMO Nutritional Guide

Cultivation & Farming Practices

Farming macadamias requires patience and precision:

• Propagation: Grafting is preferred for consistency and quality.

• Maturity timeline: Trees start bearing commercially at 7–10 years, yet remain productive for generations.

• Environmental needs: Warm, frost-free climates; good drainage; wind protection; and access to reliable water supplies are essential.

• Economics: Their long lead times and intensive harvest practices contribute to macadamias being the world’s most expensive nut crop.

AgTech Innovations and Macadamia Farming

Mac farming has always been about patience, but modern tools are reshaping how orchards are managed and optimised. Around the world, growers are adopting technologies that bring precision, efficiency, and resilience to a crop with exacting needs.

Smart Irrigation:

Soil moisture probes and automated systems ensure trees receive the right amount of water at the right time. Vital in drier climates on the periphery of the ideal growing conditions.

Precision Nutrition:

Variable-rate fertiliser programs, guided by AI-guided soil surveys and leaf analysis, help balance tree growth with kernel quality while minimising waste.

On-farm Weather Stations:

Real-time microclimate insights support better timing for sprays, harvests, and frost protection.

AI and Drone Analytics:

Platforms like Aerobotics use aerial imagery and machine learning to identify variability within orchards, highlight stress, and guide smart sampling for more accurate yield forecasts.

Automation and Robotics:

From nut collectors to husk removers, mechanisation is reducing labour bottlenecks - particularly in large-scale Australian, South African, and Brazilian orchards.

Regional Adoption:

• Brazil: At Dois Córregos (the country’s “macadamia capital”) investment in irrigation, orchard mechanisation, and processing technology is fast-tracking Brazil’s rise as a global powerhouse.

• Vietnam: The newest entrant to large-scale production, Vietnam is embracing nursery innovations, intensive orchard planning, and government-backed R&D, often integrating advanced AgTech from the outset.

Genetics and Breeding

Nelmac-2:

South Africa’s breeding legacy stretches back to the 1950s, with Llewellyn Bolt discovering two promising Macadamia integrifolia trees growing near Nelspruit. 

Bolt launched a national grafting project, sending out 32,000 trees and later selecting the best 26 for evaluation, culminating in the registration of Nelmac-2 in 1973.

Today, the Nelmac line is celebrated for large, high-quality kernels, high crack-out percentages, and solid yields. Traits providing consistently reliable performance.

Nelmac-2 is often used as a reliable rootstock as well, due to its robust growth and ability to support various scion cultivars. Seedling rootstocks are known to generally outperform clonal cuttings by providing naturally superior and more vigorous root systems.

This leads to high-yielding potential and can contribute to the success of the orchard, especially in South Africa where it is a popular choice.

The MCT Series:

The most significant recent advance in macadamia breeding is the release of the MCT-1 cultivar, an elite hybrid (Macadamia integrifolia × tetraphylla) now being widely planted across Australia and Southern Africa.

Originating from seedling trials in Gympie and Bundaberg in the early 1980s, MCT1 was released commercially in 2017 after two decades of exceptional trial performance. It has since been planted at scale (over one million trees in Australia alone) and is regarded as a new industry benchmark.

What makes MCT1 remarkable is its precocity. Precocity simply means how quickly a tree starts producing nuts. In macadamias, a precocious cultivar like MCT1 begins yielding commercially in just 3–4 years, giving farmers an earlier return on investment.

Adding to that, MCT-1 kernel recovery rates of 40–50%, and a consistent record of high productivity could boost orchard profitability by 40–50% compared with older cultivars.

Its compact, open canopy and tolerance to wind make it suitable for a wide range of orchard systems, including replanting or block replacement.

For producers in Southern Africa, where the variety is managed under TopNut, MCT1 represents a step-change in cultivar performance.

It promises not only higher yields but also improved processing efficiencies, making it a cornerstone for the next generation of macadamia orchards.

A Story Worth Remembering

As Jolyon Burnett, former CEO of the Australian Macadamia Society, reminds us in The Macadamia: Australia’s Gift to the World:

“This is a story with it all: heroes, villains, wrong turns and lost ways, new inventions, David and Goliath battles over international trade, and colourful characters – some with a utopian vision, others perhaps driven by the dream of a quick profit.”

Behind every macadamia lies a human story of resilience, innovation, and global collaboration.

Carrying the Legacy Forward

On this World Macadamia Nut Day (September 4, 2025) we celebrate far more than a delicious nut.

We honour its deep Indigenous roots, its journey to international prominence, and the dedication of farmers and innovators whose vision and persistence continue to drive the industry forward.”

South Africa’s development, alongside decades of Australian and Hawaiian research, laid the groundwork for global success. Today, macadamias are not only becoming a heritage crop of Australasia and Southern Africa, but also a rising force in areas like Kenya, Brazil, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, and more - where new orchards are contributing to the nut’s growing global footprint.

With technologies like AI-powered drones, precision irrigation, smarter nutrition strategies, and resilient new cultivars, the macadamia story continues to evolve.

The legacy is clear: macadamias are both a heritage treasure and a frontier crop for the future. Slowly and steadily carving out a bigger portion of market share in the world of nuts. And there’s room to grow!

Call to Action

Read more about the AgTech in the Macadamiasphere and how innovation is shaping mac farming in our dedicated blog section: Macadamia AgTech Articles

And explore some of the books and resources - many of which include macadamia related topics.

The thinking starts here, but the real change starts when we take action.

A Global Nut With Local Struggles

The macadamia industry is slowly emerging from one of its toughest downturns in recent memory. Prices hit historic lows in recent seasons, forcing many producers to re-think their strategies, cut input costs, or even exit the industry altogether.

Yet, as the dust settles, new opportunities are emerging. Opportunities that could redefine the sector’s trajectory. A steady upward trend.

On the one hand… consumption is growing - most notably in China, where demand has tripled since 2019. And on the other hand… structural bottlenecks remain - from limited market access for smallholders in Africa, to processing constraints in Hawaii, to high input costs in Australia.

The story of recovery is therefore not just about price; it is about resilience, adaptation, and innovation.

China: From Gifting to Everyday Snacking

No country illustrates the shift in consumption more than China. Once associated primarily with luxury gifting, macadamias are now entering everyday snacking occasions.

At the recent CFNA trade event, Professor Ma of Peking University highlighted their health credentials - rich in mono-unsaturated fats (MUFAs) and with a low glycemic index - while pointing to an unfortunate knowledge gap: that many Chinese consumers still perceive macadamias as “fattening.”

Closing this gap is now a strategic priority for the World Macadamia Organisation (WMO). Enhancing consumer understanding of nutritional benefits is central to sustaining long-term, high-value demand.

If successful, China could evolve from a gifting-driven market to the single largest engine of consistent, repeat consumption. A powerhouse in demand.

Farmers at the Forefront

While consumption drives headlines, realities on the ground tell a more nuanced story.

• In Australia, among the world’s largest producers, investment in new plantings and advanced orchard technologies has positioned the industry at the cutting edge of mechanisation and efficiency. Yet growers remain exposed to volatile prices and rising input costs.

• In Vietnam’s Lam Dong province, macadamia farming has lifted entire communities out of poverty, providing stable incomes and long-term resilience in rural economies.

• In South Africa, new best-practice guides on canopy management and irrigation are helping producers extract more yield and quality from each hectare.
  
  Endeavours to accelerate adoption of advanced AI-backed yield monitoring solutions - supported by leading local processors - underscores how they remain as one of the global leaders in terms of mac-related innovation.
  
  Efficiency gains are now make-or-break for profitability. Continuing to utilising expertise and available tools that support optimisations remains key.

• In Malawi, smallholders face unique constraints. A recent study found that insect pests (81%), diseases (34%), limited market access (33%), wind damage (25%), and inadequate advisory services (17%) remain major obstacles. Researchers propose targeted policy reforms to address these structural bottlenecks and improve farmer productivity.

• In Hawaii, the bottleneck is not in the orchards but in the processing chain. Farmers often rely on a single dominant processor, limiting bargaining power. This dynamic underscores the importance of cooperative models and value-added strategies to ensure farmers capture the true value of their crop.

• In Brazil, macadamia production spans several states - like São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Minas Gerais - yet remains modest in terms of global volumes. Innovative cropping methods such as coffee–macadamia intercropping and drip irrigation are helping overcome long payback periods and boost both yield and early returns.

• In Zimbabwe, macadamia is for the most part still an emerging crop, with expansion taking place mainly in the eastern highlands where climatic conditions favour perennial nut production.

  The sector is still young compared to South Africa or Australia, but momentum is building as investors and farmers see long-term export opportunities.

  • Cicada Agriculture exemplifies this shift, with over 800 hectares of macadamias under management and plans to scale output to 3,000–5,000 metric tons annually.What sets Cicada apart is its forward-thinking (and ongoing) integration of AgTech and regenerative practices.

    The company uses drone-derived imagery, AI-powered analytics, and smart irrigation to manage orchards more precisely - while embedding macadamias within a broader regenerative system.

    This blend of technology and sustainability is positioning Zimbabwe as an emerging player in the global macadamia landscape.

Value-Added Innovation

Beyond kernel exports, the sector is diversifying.

Cold-pressed macadamia oil for skincare, gluten-free flours, plant-based cheeses, and luxury branded snacks are gaining traction worldwide.

While not likely to surpass traditional uses for macadamia, the advancements in both manufacturing and marketing will be interesting to monitor.

Operations that integrating processing and branding - from cosmetics to food products, and repurposing output resources (like these Shisa briquettes) are in an enhanced positioned in terms of capturing consumer value.

Value-added products not only improve farm-level resilience for verticals, but also broaden demand channels that are less exposed to kernel price volatility - which will benefit all producers.

The Big Picture on Growth and Recovery

According to Research and Markets, the global macadamia market is experiencing steady expansion, driven by demand from Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, South Korea) and growing awareness of health benefits.

The macadamia ingredients market is valued at USD 3.2 billion in 2024, with forecasts projecting growth to USD 5.5 billion by 2032 - an annual growth rate of 8.25%. This outlook confirms that recovery is not only underway, but that opportunities exist for those prepared to adapt.

The road ahead rests on three interconnected factors:

1. Market education and consumer trust.
   Especially in China, where awareness of health benefits could drive long-term demand that snowballs.

2. Farmer empowerment.
   From Malawi’s smallholders to Australia’s large-scale orchards, policies and partnerships must address systemic constraints both in-orchard and further along the chain.

3. Diversification and AgTech innovation.
   Leveraging technology is paramount. From precision irrigation, regenerative practices, drone data, and smart sampling platforms - the industry needs to utilise advancements to increase efficiency and resilience.

Building Resilience for the Long Term

Macadamia farming has always required patience. Trees take years to mature, and orchards can produce for generations. This long-view is still as important as ever.

The market is showing signs of recovery, but volatility is part of the reality we have to manage. Weather extremes, shifting demand, rising input costs, and evolving trade constraints means the industry at large cannot afford complacency.

What will set the foundation for long-term resilience is collaboration – not only between farmers and processors, but also with researchers, agronomists, and AgTech providers.

By combining better science with smarter technology, and aligning industry stakeholders around fairer and more transparent supply chains, the macadamia sector can continue to expand sustainably.

The opportunity is not just to sell more nuts, but to grow strong and resilient systems. Orchards that are managed with precision. Businesses that capture additional value through innovation. And regions that turn macadamias into a cornerstone of rural development.

The thinking starts here, but the real change starts when we take action.

References:

Market & Industry References

• Macadamia Nuts Market News – Market.us

• World Macadamia Organisation – About Us

• Macadamia Market Insights & Growth Opportunities – LinkedIn

• Bright Prospects for Macadamia Nuts in China – Produce Report

• Macadamia Market Report, 2025 – Research and Markets

• Macadamia Market Forecast 2025–2032 – Maximize Market Research

• Global Market Update – Cardassilaris, Feb 2025

Regional & Farmer Case Studies

• Macadamia Farming Lifts Lam Dong Out of Poverty – FreshPlaza

• China Imports Kenyan Macadamias Despite Export Ban – FreshPlaza

• Pruning and Irrigation Guide Boosts Yields – FreshPlaza, South Africa

• CFNA Insights on Chinese Consumption – WMO, LinkedIn

• Growing Avocados and Macadamias – Cicada Holdings, LinkedIn

• Constraints for Smallholder Macadamia Farmers – PLOS ONE (Malawi)

• AgCulture Podcast: Annie Ridgely on Hawaiian Macadamia Farming – YouTube

• The Macadamia Capital Pioneering Brazil's AgTech Frontier: Dois Córregos

The Enemy Among Us

Insect pests do not knock before they enter.
By the time we notice them, it is often too late.

Macadamia Felted Coccid (MFC) is one such enemy.
A sap-sucking scale insect native to Australia, it was first identified in South Africa in 2017 and has become a growing threat in orchards across the country.

The insect inserts its slender stylet into macadamia tissue – leaves, stems, branches, and nut husks. The result? Distorted growth, leaf yellowing, nut abortion, twig dieback, and a sharp decline in yield.

In severe infestations, entire branches can die back. Left unmanaged, the pest jeopardises both profitability as well as orchard [and agribusiness] longevity.

To the untrained eye, MFC symptoms can be mistaken for general stress. But once the distinctive felted sac appears, the damage is already underway.

Biology of a Pest

Understanding MFC’s lifecycle gives us insight into why it is so difficult to control:

• Adult females are stationary and protected by a felted sac. They lay eggs underneath this cover.

• Crawlers, the mobile juvenile stage, spread across the tree and initiate new feeding sites.

• Males pupate, emerge with wings, seek out females, and die shortly after mating.

These insects are incredibly small – crawlers measure between 0.2 mm and 0.8 mm – but the impact of an infestation is enormous.

MFC populations are highly aggregated: They tend to cluster in hotspots within an orchard rather than spread evenly. These hotspots are often missed by traditional scouting methods unless they are severe and visible from a distance.

The pest thrives in dry months and produces multiple generations per year.

It’s this combination of stealth, aggregation, and year-round pressure that makes MFC particularly challenging!

Enter: The AI Scout

Imagine a near-future scenario - not decades away - one or two seasons from now.

A farmer initiates a drone scan over hundreds, if not thousands, of hectares. Drones capture RGB, multispectral, and thermal data - flagging early signs of stress in specific tree clusters.

The drone imagery is uploaded to a cloud-based analytics platform and processed using artificial intelligence.

MFC-induced stress hotspots are identified.

These are not guesses. They are precise, GPS-tagged areas showing subtle but important changes – changes that signal MFC activity before it’s become obviously visible to the naked eye.

A field scout visits the flagged hotspot.

Scouts take photographs of the nuts and branches using an AI-powered mobile app.

Instantly, an agri AI assistant analyses the imagery.

• It confirms the presence of MFC.

• It quantifies the severity, scoring objectively by percentage (visually confirmed symptoms).

• It categorises the results by tree, cluster, orchard, cultivar, and even farming region or micro-climate (benchmark reporting and dashboard reviews come as standard with every initial or new analysis).

The scout walks on, the system grows smarter, and the farming operation becomes increasingly responsive.

AI-automations kick-in.
Follow-on drone scanning.
Updated hotspots are reported.

Scouting has become automatic via UAVs and UGVs - so have control measures.

Time is of the essence.

Objectivity Over Opinion

Traditional scouting, especially for diseases like Phytophthora for example, has traditionally relied on subjective visual scoring.

A human scout might rate a tree between 1 and 9 based on symptoms – but these ratings are inconsistent across scouts, seasons, and analysis fatigue levels.1

Artificial intelligence offers objectivity.

Once trained on enough images, it can identify MFC infestations more accurately, more quickly, and more consistently than a human ever could - especially at scale. It does so without tiring, without distraction, and without delay.

This represents more than just a better tool – it is a complete change in how macadamia pest problems are detected, quantified, and acted upon.

MFC-PPS

The “MFC Pest Prevalence Score”

A scoring metric soon obtained (and perhaps even required) at every level of the operation; quickly and efficiently despite the challenges this pest presents in the field.

Building the Full System

What is described here is not just one tool.

It is a modular, integrated pest response system:

1. Scan – Drone scans detect early signs of tree stress.

2. Sample – Scouts use smartphones to capture images of suspect clusters.

3. Detect – AI analyses images to confirm pest type, stage, and calculates severity (prevalence score).

4. Respond – Autonomous spray drones or ground units are triggered if prevalence severity thresholds are breached.

5. Monitor – Follow-up scans assess the impact and track spread dynamics.

And… repeat.

The result is a real-time feedback loop.
A digital immune response for orchard health.

A defence grid; protecting orchards like an agri air-defence system that never sleeps.

Future Visions, Real Technologies

Stay with me.
And let us go a step further.

• Docking stations automatically charge scanning drones and refill spray drones which are activated respectively based on alerts or HQ command prompts.

• Artificial intelligence predicts outbreak patterns based on historical and current weather conditions, known pest biology, and real-time if-field updates.

• Responsive biocontrol agents (such as parasitoid wasps) are released using precision drones and unmanned ground vehicles.

• Orchard-wide pest heatmaps guide weekly IPM meetings.

• Pest population dashboards span regions and link farmer networks, agronomists, and input suppliers. Network effects create a robust alert and response system.

From detection, to action, to verification – all without time wasted, without spreadsheets, guesswork, or unnecessary chemical use.

This is not science fiction.

It is the convergence of technologies that already exist – machine learning, aerial imaging, mobile computing, autonomous spraying, and cloud-based IoT integration.

All that is missing is the orchestration.

A dream on the horizon.

Who will lead the charge?

The Cost of Doing Nothing

Across agriculture, history offers grim reminders of what happens when pest threats are ignored or detected too late.

Ten examples of pest and disease disasters that reshaped entire sectors:

• Citrus Greening (HLB) – decimated citrus industries in Florida and Brazil.

• Panama Disease TR4 – a global threat to banana production.

• Coffee Leaf Rust – severely impacted LATAM’s coffee sector.

• Grape Phylloxera – nearly destroyed the French wine industry.

• Fall Armyworm – spread across the globe within a few years.

• Cassava Mosaic Virus – threatens food security in sub-Saharan Africa.

• Tomato Brown Rugose Virus – still spreading in major tomato-growing regions!

• Potato Late Blight – triggered the Irish Potato Famine.

• Bacterial Panicle Blight – an emerging rice disease tied to climate variability.
  

• Avocado Sunblotch Viroid – difficult to detect and manage.

  • Want me to write about this and how AI is helping? See you in the comments.

Each of these began with a small, local problem that became a national or global catastrophe.

MFC has that potential.

But unlike in the past, we now have the technology to act with purpose.

Beyond Macadamias

This is not just about one crop.

What we build for MFC detection in macadamia orchards will be adapted for other tree crops, vineyards, berries, and high-value horticulture.

Advancements like those I see on the horizon lay the foundation for better Integrated Pest Management (IPM) across multiple agricultural arenas.

Farms of the future will be intelligent systems.

They will learn, respond, and protect themselves.

They will reduce input waste, protect biodiversity, and maintain year-round surveillance without needing human intervention every step of the way.

And it starts with building the tools – now.

And it accelerates by adoption.

By necessity.

Closing Reflections: The First Image

One photograph.
That is all it takes to begin.

A scout stands beneath a tree, raises their phone, and takes an image of a nut cluster. A set of branches. That image is analysed by artificial intelligence. It triggers a response. That response leads to (1) knowledge and (2) taking action. Saves trees. Saving yields. A simple image protects whole harvests. It preserves livelihoods.

We are not dreaming. We are forecasting.

We are designing the systems that will defend agri businesses and fight for food security. It must happen. If pests will not rest, neither should our systems.

Macadamia Felted Coccid (MFC), scientifically known as Acanthococcus ironsidei, is a stealthy pest wreaking havoc in macadamia orchards. Its presence often goes unnoticed until significant damage has occurred, leading to leaf yellowing, branch dieback, and reduced nut yields. In severe cases, entire trees can succumb to its infestation.

But there's hope.

Drones are revolutionising how we detect and manage this pest.

A Pest That Hides in Plain Sight

MFC thrives under a fuzzy white felt on leaves, twigs, and nuts, making early detection challenging. Traditional scouting methods, while effective, are labor-intensive and often reactive. By the time visible symptoms emerge, the infestation is already well-established.

Enter drone technology. Equipped with high-resolution cameras, drones can survey vast orchard areas swiftly, identifying stress indicators before they become visible to the naked eye.

Seeing the Signs Sooner

Recent research has demonstrated the efficacy of drones in early MFC detection.

A study conducted in Hawaii utilised RGB imagery from small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) to detect foliar damage caused by MFC. The findings revealed that even at foliar damage levels below 10%, drone imagery correlated positively with ground-based assessments, highlighting its potential in early infestation detection.

Notably, the study also observed that certain cultivars, such as 344 and 856, exhibited higher susceptibility to MFC, while cultivars 800 and 333 showed greater tolerance. This information is invaluable for growers aiming to prioritise monitoring and intervention efforts.

Track. Compare. Act.

Platforms like Aerobotics enhance the utility of drone data.

By integrating drone imagery with ground truth observations, farmers can:

• Identify early signs of MFC infestation.

• Monitor the spread and severity over time.

• Evaluate the effectiveness of control measures.

• Make informed decisions on targeted interventions.

The synergy between aerial surveillance and on-the-ground scouting ensures a comprehensive understanding of orchard health.

Not Just Drones - Decision Support

While drones provide a bird's-eye view, integrating their data with other tools amplifies their effectiveness. Combining drone imagery with mobile applications allows for real-time infield observations, enabling scouts to tag affected trees and sync data seamlessly.

This holistic approach ensures that interventions are timely, targeted, and efficient, reducing unnecessary treatments and preserving orchard health.

Expert Perspectives

Dr. Schalk Schoeman emphasises the importance of vigilant monitoring:

“Effective monitoring is the first line of defence in any insect management programme.” [read more]

Dr. Elsje Joubert advocates for adaptive strategies:

“Farmers need to keep open minds and be willing to change their way of thinking if this industry is going to survive the pest onslaught into the future.” [read more]

Dr. Gerda Fourie underscores the value of collaboration:

“The success of our Macadamia Protection Programme hinges on regular and comprehensive communication with farmers.” [learn more]

Scouting for MFC: Practical Steps Using Drone Data

1. Conduct Regular Drone Surveys:
   If you have easy access to a pilot or equipment, schedule drone flights every 4–6 weeks during peak risk periods to capture high-resolution imagery and up to date insights.

   
   If you have constraints in terms of budget or pilot/hardware availability, schedule your drone flight at least once a season at the peak risk period to monitor longer term changes over time (either spread, prevalence, or intervention effectiveness).

2. Analyse Image Data for Stress Indicators:

   Utilise platforms like Aerobotics to process drone imagery, identifying areas showing early signs of stress. And to follow-up with in-field scouting.

   

3. Ground-Truthing:

   Deploy in-field scouts to inspect and validate any suspected hotspots (these show up as stress epicentres on drone data outputs) confirming MFC presence and severity.

   
   These saved observations can also be used to create a heat-map of prevalence helping you to monitor where the worst areas are or from which side of the farm the spread is moving in from.

   
   

4. Integrate Data:

   Combine aerial and ground observations to track infestation patterns, evaluate control measures, and adjust strategies accordingly.

   
   

5. Implement Targeted Interventions:

   In Integrated Pest Management (IPM), interventions are precise and strategic—not blanket treatments. The goal is to control Macadamia Felted Coccid (MFC) while minimising chemical use and preserving beneficial insects.

   • Spot-spraying only the infested areas identified through drone surveys and ground scouting reduces pesticide volumes significantly. This lowers costs and environmental impact.

   • Threshold-based treatments mean farmers act only when infestations exceed defined levels that risk economic damage, avoiding unnecessary applications.

   • Encouraging natural predators such as ladybirds and parasitic wasps is vital. Preserving these allies through reduced pesticide use helps maintain biological control within orchards.

   • Cultivar selection and orchard design can support resilience—knowing which varieties are more susceptible allows farmers to prioritise monitoring and adapt management accordingly.

   • Use of softer, targeted pesticides with minimal non-target effects fits within this strategy, applied as a last resort when biological and cultural controls aren’t enough.

     
     

   By combining these approaches, farmers can effectively suppress MFC populations while safeguarding orchard ecology and long-term productivity.

Can Drones Be Used for Spraying MFC?

Yes, drones can be equipped for precision spraying, offering a highly targeted method to control Macadamia Felted Coccid infestations.

Using drone spraying allows farmers to treat affected areas identified through aerial surveys and ground scouting, minimising chemical use and limiting exposure to non-target parts of the orchard.

This targeted approach improves efficiency and reduces labour costs compared to conventional spraying methods. Additionally, drones can access difficult terrain and dense canopy areas more easily, ensuring thorough coverage where MFC tends to hide.

While drone spraying is a promising tool, it should be integrated into an overall IPM strategy, complementing biological controls and other cultural practices to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal environmental impact.

Appropriate Biological Controls for MFC

One of the most effective biological control strategies for managing Macadamia Felted Coccid is the use of parasitic wasps. These beneficial insects lay their eggs inside the coccid pests. As the wasp larvae develop, they consume the host from within, eventually killing it.

Several species of parasitic wasps are known to target felted coccids specifically, and encouraging their presence in orchards can significantly reduce pest populations. Maintaining biodiversity and minimising broad-spectrum pesticide use helps these natural enemies establish and thrive.

Integrating parasitic wasps into an orchard IPM plan offers a sustainable, long-term solution for MFC control; one that complements drone-based monitoring and targeted chemical interventions.

Why It Matters

Early detection and precise intervention are paramount in managing MFC. By leveraging drone technology and integrated platforms, farmers can:

• Reduce crop losses.

• Optimise resource utilisation.

• Enhance orchard longevity and productivity.

Take Action!

If MFC has been a concern in your orchard or region: Harness the power of drone technology and integrated scouting to safeguard your crops.

Reach out today. Let me know in the comments below if you have any questions, or if you’re reading this on email, feel free to reply.

I also have a free email course where you can learn more about Drone Data Metrics - check it out below:

You Might Also Like:

The journey began in 1988 when José Eduardo Camargo visited Hawaii and noticed a boom in macadamia orchards replacing sugarcane.

Inspired, José returned home to Brazil and convinced his father to let him plant trees on less-productive land.

“You can plant macadamia – just don’t take out any of my sugarcane,” was his father's only condition.

With no local reference points, they created an association, and imported technical knowledge, ie form of Professor Philip J. Ito. Eventually a nursery was also established, that supplied over 70% of the macadamia trees now planted in Brazil.

Professor Ito was a prominent horticulturist at the University of Hawaii's ‘College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources’. Co-authoring several publications on macadamia cultivation, including: "Macadamia Nut Cultivars Recommended for Hawaii" alongside Richard A. Hamilton.

Building an Industry from Scratch

At the time, macadamia processing infrastructure in Brazil was virtually non-existent. Machines were imported or adapted, and quality standards had to be established from the ground up.

“We developed everything. We went from how to crack a single nut, to developing all the machines you need, and a drying system.”

What followed was a 30-year investment in localised agri-processing know-how:

• Post-harvest drying systems

• Specialised nutcrackers

• Defect detection protocols

• Packaging lines for export

“We didn’t wait for research – we became the research.”

Today, Dois Córregos processes nearly half of Brazil’s exported macadamia crop.

Technologies Driving Brazil’s Macadamia Industry

Several standout technologies underpin this success story:

• AI-Powered X-ray Sorting
  These machines detect kernel defects internally, before cracking. This reduces fungal contamination risks and improves food safety.

• Optical Graders
  Systems that grade for size, colour, and external defects using programmable logic and vision systems.

• Customised Nutcrackers
  Designed for maximum kernel yield – preserving value at the most profitable end of the market (whole kernels).

• Controlled Drying Systems
  Precision moisture reduction improves kernel shelf life and consistency across batches.

• Biological Pest Control
  Documenting and monitoring of optimal predator-prey balance, supported by research with Embrapa and IAC.

• Carbon Farming through Cover Cropping
  Integration of legumes and grasses to build soil biomass, suppress weeds, and regenerate fertility.

• BRC Global Certification Protocols
  International food safety and traceability compliance, opening doors to large buyers like Unilever, Blue Diamond, and Kopenhagen.

A Regenerative and Scientific Approach

The farm's philosophy combines agronomic precision with ecological sensitivity. Regenerative practices – including reduced tillage, microbial diversity enhancement, and green manures – build long-term soil resilience.

In parallel, Embrapa collaborations have allowed for in-depth research into entomology and plant pathology, helping growers identify pests and diseases and manage them with minimal chemical inputs.

“The more life in the soil – from fungi to earthworms – the stronger the orchard.”

A Local Festival with Global Significance

Each year, the town of Dois Córregos hosts the Macadamia Festival, now attracting over 45,000 people. With more than 50 dishes on display, it’s not just a culinary celebration – it’s a public expression of local agricultural pride.

Since its early years, the event has grown into a platform for food innovation, community fundraising, awareness, and market expansion.

The macadamia industry in Dois Córregos is deeply personal. The vision was never just to build a business, but to create a new agricultural identity. One that merges tradition, innovation, and ecological thinking. The festival is a celebration of this ethos.

“It’s not just a business – it’s a dream we’re building, every harvest.”

AgTech Take-Aways

This isn’t just a story of one nut. It’s a roadmap for any region or grower wanting to invest in vertical integration, quality-first thinking, and adaptable technology.

• Start with marginal land if you have to, but stick to known favourable growing conditions. Scale through continual agronomic learning. Especially true for areas without a track record.

• Invest in tech that suits local production constraints. This may need to be specifically developed for your unique situation. But research for existing solutions you can use to accelerate development.

• Embrace biological management, not only chemical use. Work with nature best you can for longterm results and sustainable practices.

• Anchor growth in research and certification. Invest in building a pool of expertise, knowledge, and support. Look to the examples in Brazilian, South Africa, and Australian growing regions who are doing this well.

• Remember strategic partnerships, both technical and commercial.

• Tell your story – locally and globally - create awareness and drive demand.

Key Macadamia Producing Regions of Brazil

While São Paulo remains the core of Brazil’s macadamia industry - especially around Dois Córregos - other states like Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, and Bahia are seeing steady growth as producers diversify from traditional crops.

Southern states like Paraná and Santa Catarina are testing cultivar adaptation in cooler climates, while Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are exploring macadamia in mixed-crop systems.

• São Paulo (Interior): Centred around Dois Córregos, this is Brazil’s main production and export hub, with developed nurseries and processing infrastructure.

• Minas Gerais: Particularly in the south and Zona da Mata, producers are diversifying from coffee and citrus into macadamia.

• Espírito Santo: Some farms are incorporating macadamia into agroforestry systems alongside coffee, taking advantage of favourable microclimates.

• Bahia: In southern Bahia, macadamia is grown in mixed systems, often with cacao, as part of sustainable agriculture initiatives.

• Paraná & Santa Catarina: These cooler southern states have emerging plantings, with climate adaptation still under trial.

• Goiás & Mato Grosso do Sul: Early-stage plantings exist in diversified farms, often linked to citrus and grain operations.

Further reading:

QueenNut Macadamia (Brazil) - History

Video: DOIS CÓRREGOS BERÇO DA MACADAMIA

You might also like:

Macadamia farms can suffer severe damage from cyclone-induced flooding due to strong winds, excessive rainfall, and prolonged water-logging.

Here’s how cyclones impact macadamia orchards:

1. Wind Damage

• Strong winds can uproot trees, break branches, and cause premature nut drop.

• Younger and larger trees alike are vulnerable. Although a big part of modern agriculture, irrigated orchards can have trees with shallower root systems - as water is readily available near the surface of the soil - and these trees are easily uprooted in strong gusts.

2. Flooding & Water-logging

• Macadamia trees are highly sensitive to water-logging. Standing water for more than 48 hours can lead to root rot and rapid tree decline or death.

• Excess moisture can cause soil erosion, washing away topsoil vital nutrients.

3. Disease & Pests

• Phytophthora root rot can develop due to prolonged wet conditions.

• Fungal infections like blossom blight increase after high humidity and rain.

• Flooding can also lead to an increase in pests, such as borers and nut beetles.

4. Crop Loss

• If nuts are at a critical stage of development, they may drop prematurely and be lost.

• Even nuts that stay on trees might be affected by mould or fungus due to excess moisture and high humidity levels.

Macadamia Producing Regions Affected by Cyclones

Australia

• Tropical Cyclone Alfred (2025): In March 2025, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding to key macadamia-growing regions. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) reported that it's too early to quantify the full impact, but the initial crop forecast of a 5% year-on-year increase to 56,890 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture is now under review.
  

• Aussie Flooding (2022): Severe weather and flooding in New South Wales and South East Queensland affected the 2022 macadamia crop. Early predictions estimated up to a 10% loss in the affected regions, with concerns about orchard cleanup delaying harvests.

Zimbabwe

• Cyclone Anna (2022): The Chipinge growing region in eastern Zimbabwe suffered heavy losses after mature macadamia trees were uprooted by Cyclone Anna. This region had previously seen an expansion in macadamia cultivation, with many smallholders entering the sector.

Malawi

• Cyclone Freddy (2023): Macadamia farmers in Malawi faced significant challenges due to Cyclone Freddy in March 2023, which destroyed crops and scattered macadamia fruits from trees. This event highlighted the vulnerability of macadamia cultivation to extreme weather events in the region.

These events underscore the susceptibility of macadamia-producing regions to cyclones and the importance of implementing strategies to mitigate such risks.

Recovery & Prevention?

• Drainage systems are critical to prevent prolonged water-logging and divert water away from trees and/or help to drain low lying areas.

• Windbreaks (like rows of tall trees) help protect orchards from strong winds.

• Proper orchard management can reduce disease risks after flooding, but taking measures to move standing water, and improve drainage.

• If trees survive, post-flood nutrition management (ie. calcium, potassium, and phosphorus applications) can help them recover.

Drone surveys and Mapping

UAVs play a crucial role in assessing damage to macadamia orchards after severe weather events. High-resolution aerial imagery allows farmers and agronomists to quickly identify affected areas, including uprooted trees, broken branches, and flood-damaged zones.

Unlike ground-based assessments, which can be slow and limited by accessibility, drones provide a comprehensive view of the entire orchard, even in areas that are difficult to reach due to flooding or debris.

By using multispectral and thermal imaging, drones help detect less obvious damage, such as water stress in trees, early signs of disease, or soil erosion caused by excessive rainfall.

This data enables precise decision-making for orchard recovery, such as prioritising drainage improvements, replanting strategies, and targeted fertilisation to support tree health.

Additionally, geotagged imagery allows for accurate documentation of losses, which is useful for insurance claims and disaster relief applications.

Metrics that help quantify damage:

• Low Health: Established trees, now with NDRE between 0.15 and 0.25
  
  For younger trees (< 2-3yrs old) look at the same values, but with NDVI, which is best for monitoring vegetation of smaller plants, at per-plant level.
  

• Dead Trees: Trees with no recognisable green vegetation (or NDVI less than 0.15) - most likely due to high winds, or induced leaf drop, due to free-standing water for prolonged periods.
  
  Sometimes these trees recover, but in most cases they are damaged severely either physically, or at the root zone due to flooding and standing water, and will be recorded as an asset loss.
  
  Replacing these trees with healthy one’s after damage assessments and site rehabilitations, may be the best option in terms of a quick orchard turnaround, rather than a prolonged tree rejuvenation process. Of course, this is different in each situation and something to consider after severe weather events like these.
  

• Missing Trees: Trees that were once there, that no longer exist or their canopies are missing. In essence a measure of the number of gaps in the orchard that denote a “missing tree”.

All the figures above help with a recon of tree inventory after the sever weather event, compared to the known orchard status before the event.

Beyond orchard recovery, drone mapping is essential for optimising resource allocation and infrastructure repairs.

It helps authorities and farm managers identify damaged roads, irrigation systems, and processing facilities, ensuring that emergency repairs and aid are directed where they are needed most.

By creating up-to-date maps, decision-makers can develop more effective long-term resilience strategies, such as improved windbreak placement, better water management, and enhanced soil conservation practices to mitigate any future cyclone impacts.

Drones are fast becoming a staple in the arsenal for farmers looking to rise again after the toughest of challenges. It’s all part-and-parcel of the mission for greater farming resilience in the face of increased adversities and uncertainties.

You may also like:

This post is a focus on the Aerobotics set of yield solutions applicable to nut growers; and for the most part a repeat of my Amber Macs Expo presentation (Feb, 2025).

In essence, my slides put into words.

Technology’s Role in Macadamia Farming’s “Next Leap”

Advancements include crop monitoring, yield prediction, labor management, and technology implementation like solution-stacking. Advancements addressing limiting factors, reducing variance, and optimising production, among others.

When it comes to Macadamia farming, we have only begun to scratch the surface of what is possible. And like the cracking of this noble nut itself, we have our work cut out for us.

It's tougher than it seems.
But it is possible.

Fortunately, technology offers solutions through artificial intelligence (AI) and remote sensing. By leveraging these tools, farmers can improve accuracy, efficiency, and decision-making.

The new kid on the block is the Aerobotics TrueFruit product - currently taking the fruit world by storm.

The Macadamiasphere? …not quite yet.
But we're getting there.

An advanced data-capture app infused with AI, working in tune with the platform backing it. Moreover, accurate size, colour and blemish statistics for each orchard, cultivar, or farming region. And remember, this is done in-the-field. Ahead of sophisticated post-harvest scanning in a pack-house or processing plant!

Now, the TrueFruit solutions do tie into the macadamiasphere in some way, providing value to nut growers. And why it’s so exciting, is in how it links up with the drone data platform.

While focusing on nut-in-husk (NIH) size - as one would do for a crops like citrus or apples - is not yet a core ask from producers, I believe it will be an important data point in years to come as market demand strengthens. And in particular, demand for larger kernels from a consumer base of foodie connoisseurs who know what they want.

The link between nut processors and producers must also be kept front-of-mind. Producers will often be asked for an indication (forecast or guesstimate) of their nut size expected for the season.

With smart-sampling backed NIH growth curves, and a record of husk thickness per cultivar per farm - even per growing region / province - an accurate nut-in-shell (NIS) figure is reached. No more guessing nut size.

Moreover, an initial precision forecast is possible right after nut-drop.

Months ahead of harvest.

Previously… unthinkable.

How the core Aerobotics drone tech works:

• A drone scans an orchard.

• The pilot uploads the data to the cloud.

• Processing software produces data metrics specific to each tree.

Next, the data outputs at per-tree level are used to generate waypoints in the orchard. The most representative trees to sample.

Read more in PART 2 of my post about nut yield forecasting:
Countering risky guesstimates with AI-backed smart-sampling…

The Challenge of Yield Forecasting

Yield forecasting is currently a complex exercise for many farmers due to:

• Lack of structured methodologies

• Time and resource constraints

• Limited access to technology

• Variability in orchard conditions

An incorrect forecast affects multiple stakeholders. This leads to issues like market volatility, storage problems, and reputation damage.

To overcome these hurdles, farmers can use various yield monitoring strategies.

1. Guesstimates…
   A qualitative approach that uses logic and assumptions to estimate yields.

   While simple, it lacks precision and leads to errors.

2. Historical Data Analysis…
   Examining past yield trends to predict future output.

   While useful, historical data doesn't account for sudden changes like extreme weather events.

3. Mechanical/Physical Sampling…
   In-field sampling provides real-world data.

   But accuracy depends on factors like sample timing and orchard variability. Also labour intensive. The forecast is only as accurate as (1) the method employed to do the sampling, and (2) the amount of data gathered. Oftentimes datasets are too small and are not representative.

4. Remote Sensing…
   Using satellite imagery, drones, and in-field telemetry.

   Capturing large-scale data on vegetation health, canopy sizes, or growth patterns. Sophisticated models produce a generalised view on yield. Some can account for climate related inputs too.

5. Smart Sampling…
   AI-driven sampling that selects representative trees.

   This reduces human error and improves forecasting accuracy. Strikes a balance between time spent in-field and an appropriate amount of data. Mobile app technologies allow for quicker collection of data with higher accuracies. Quicker turnaround times, and less human error.

The last two methods are arguably the way of the future (for those not utilising these resources already). And the beautiful things about them is that by marrying the two, you get the best of both worlds.

The Power of Remote Sensing

In the context of leaning into my current scope of knowledge, I'm only outlining two remote sensing options right now. Namely Satellite imagery, and Drone based imagery.

I'm aware that in-field telemetry adds a new dimension to tracking real-time crop status. However, it's perhaps a topic for separate post. And deservedly so. Especially where water-use is concerned. Also, when paired with additional telemetry information such as those from soil probes.

• Example: Phytech
  …"bridging the gap between growers and their plants, delivering real-time insights and actionable recommendations to optimise irrigation, enhance crop health, and simplify farming." to quote them directly.

Satellite-Based Forecasting:

Satellites provide a broad view of orchards, using multispectral and hyperspectral sensors to predict yields. They can deliver block-level forecasts up to two months before harvest. However, limitations include:

• High costs and data accessibility barriers (specifically for yield forecasting)

• Dependence on weather conditions (cloud-cover)

• Low spatial resolution (compared to drone surveying)

Drone-Based Forecasting:

Drones offer high-resolution imagery and advanced analytics. They provide per-tree data, enabling precise anomaly detection and targeted interventions. Unlike satellites, drones allow real-time adaptability and improved orchard management efficiently.

• An affordable cost for high-accuracy crop monitoring (drone + mobile app)

Smart Sampling and AI Integration

How does AI enhance yield forecasting?

By leveraging remote-sensing outputs - mostly drone-derived data - and pairing these with an in-field mobile app, and the Aerobotics cloud-based platform (AKA TrueFruit)

This gives us:

• AI-generated sample points – Ensuring representative tree selection.

• An advanced Mobile app – Streamlining data collection and reducing errors.

• AI-powered extrapolations – Using tree census data to refine predictions.

The smart-sampling process includes:

1. Farm digitisation/s

2. Drone survey + analysis
   

3. AI-based sample point generation

4. In-field data collection (nut counts, sizing, etc.)
   

5. Data reviews and calibration

The data review and calibration step is mostly focused on data collection efficiency. Also, if sample routes are producing the required dataset mass. Other factors like data quality (human error at point of collection) are looked into. And any other challenges that might have come up are addressed.

Balancing Cost and Accuracy

Investing in high-tech sampling, means balancing the cost of forecasting with the financial risks associated with inaccuracy.

Leveraging smart-sampling technologies enables improved forecasting accuracy. A reduction in human error. Enhanced operational efficiency. And enables resilient practices, and flexible farm management.

My advice?
Find the balance between the cost of forecasting (the cost of the solution/tools/implementation) ...and the cost of inaccuracy (financial loss, etc).

There’s a graph that comes to mind. And although born in the financial arena, it’s one which still maps and visualises this “sweet spot” nicely:

In closing, remember that yield monitoring does not have to be a guessing game.

With AI-driven forecasting and remote sensing tools, macadamia farmers are making informed decisions. Optimising their resources, reducing the unknown, and securing a competitive edge.

• Learn more about drone mapping and metrics:

• Find me on social: LinkedIn, Instagram, Twitter (X), YouTube

Risks that influence in-season yield include: Weather impacts, pest and disease impacts, and other factors largely out of our control (or those that come at us out of the blue) like theft, mismanagement, social unrest, and unforeseen events like epidemics and legislature changes.

Importantly, these in-season risks impact yield predictions and their accuracy.

This is especially true where historical yield data is used to provide a projected figure for the future.

While past data can shine a guiding light on the general norms for a certain nut type or cultivar according to age of the orchard, growing region, and used for predictions if “all things being equal”… it is not an accurate method of predicting the harvest size of the year to come.

Life is seldom an “all things being equal” game, if ever. There are simply too many influencing factors and nuances when it comes to farming.

PART 1:
When nut harvest forecasts went horribly wrong

There have been several instances where yield and harvest forecasting in the nut industry went horribly wrong, leading to significant financial and operational disruptions. Here are a five examples:

1) The California Almond Crop Forecast Overestimation, 2014

• What Happened? The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) overestimated California’s almond crop yield in 2014, predicting a bumper harvest.

• Impact: Growers and traders anticipated a surplus, which initially depressed prices. However, the actual yield was significantly lower than expected due to drought conditions and pollination issues. This led to market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and financial losses for those who had priced their contracts based on the faulty forecast.

• What Went Wrong? The forecasting models failed to account for water shortages and underestimated the impact of extreme weather on pollination and nut set.
  

2) The Australian Macadamia Crop Underestimation, 2016-2017

• What Happened? Early industry estimates suggested a poor macadamia yield due to unfavourable weather conditions.

• Impact: Many processors and exporters planned for limited supply, affecting contracts and pricing strategies. However, the final yield was significantly higher than expected, causing market corrections and pricing issues.

• What Went Wrong? Forecasting models were heavily reliant on historical weather data but did not accurately incorporate real-time data on tree recovery and late-season flowering.
  

3) The U.S. Pecan Harvest Overestimation, 2018-2019

• What Happened? The pecan industry relied on optimistic forecasts suggesting a strong U.S. crop in 2018-2019.

• Impact: Traders and exporters made financial commitments based on these predictions. However, hurricanes (such as Hurricane Michael in Georgia) devastated orchards, reducing actual yields. This led to price spikes, contract failures, and supply chain struggles.

• What Went Wrong? Forecasting did not adequately account for extreme weather risks, and the reliance on early-season indicators proved unreliable.
  

4) The South African Macadamia Crop Forecast Overestimation, 2020

• What Happened? Industry bodies and analysts predicted a record macadamia harvest, leading processors and exporters to make supply chain and pricing commitments accordingly.

• Impact: The actual harvest fell short, mainly due to unexpected late-season droughts and increased pest pressure. This created financial stress for processors who had locked in contracts based on inaccurate yield forecasts.

• What Went Wrong? The models used for yield prediction underestimated the impact of climate variability and pest outbreaks.

5) The Chilean Walnut Harvest Shortfall, 2021

• What Happened? Chile, a major global walnut exporter, predicted a strong harvest in 2021.

• Impact: Due to unexpected weather fluctuations (frost and rain during flowering), actual yields were significantly lower. Many export contracts had to be renegotiated, and some buyers faced shortages.

• What Went Wrong? The forecasting model relied on early-season flowering indicators but failed to account for unexpected frost damage.

Key Takeaways from These Failures:

• Over-reliance on Historical Data:
  Many forecasts rely too much on past trends and fail to adapt to emerging risks.

• Climate Variability:
  Extreme weather events, such as droughts, hurricanes, and frosts, can severely impact nut yields.

• Pollination Uncertainties:
  For tree nuts like almonds and macadamias, successful pollination is crucial but often unpredictable.

• Pest and Disease Outbreaks:
  Unexpected infestations can rapidly reduce yields but are not always included in predictive models, or it’s difficult to know the extent of the damage.

• Lack of Real-Time Data Integrations:
  Many forecasting models fail to incorporate up-to-date satellite imagery or drone data, soil moisture data, and AI-driven analytics.

PART 2:
Counteractive Measures: Proactive Sampling

One way to counter all the uncertainty is to know what the crop status is in real time. Or as near to real-time as possible. A massive challenge in large scale orchard scenarios.

There are simply too many trees and too little time (and oftentimes manpower or budget) to go around to every single tree and record where the crop is at, and to collate the data.

And what’s more… to do it all over again after an extreme weather event, pest infestation, or another unforeseen and destructive force.

In-field technologies like Aerobotics’ TrueFruit app are a new way of measuring yield in near real-time for review by all stakeholders. The best part? Sampling is done either regularly, or strategically after any unforeseen orchard changes.

We can now get an updated and accurate view of the amount of crop left on the trees.

In the context of sampling for yield projection - there are two major AI-use instances:

1. Sample tree generation

2. Weighted extrapolations

Herein lies the power of pairing drone insights with a world-class mobile app...

Drone data outputs are used to AI-generate the most representative trees to visit for nut counting. The mobile app then guides the user to the exact sample tree in the orchard. Depending on the size of the orchard, there may be several trees to visit. This number can also be customised.

My favoured suggestion is at least one tree per two hectares - one tree per hectare is even better - but you will need to balance hectares covered against capacity. A careful mix of enough data to back the integrity of the results, and available resources for the data collection itself.

Once at the sample point, and depending on the size of the tree and the number of nuts on that tree, stripping the tree may be the best option.

This is a personal preference and some will rather favour speed over accuracy, and hurriedly count nuts by eye on branches, or guesstimate the totals. Of course, the more accurate you can be, the better. I suggest stripping the tree, placing nuts into crates, and counting out the nuts as you remove them. A clicker counter can help too. Anything to reduce any human error at this stage is great.

If you feel disheartened about taking a crop off the tree for this exercise, think to yourself, “Will an accurate forecast of nut counts across my operations be worth more than the loss of the crop on a few trees per orchard?” if the answer is, “Absolutely!” then strip the trees, gather the results, and let the second step in the process run its course. This step is of course the weighted extrapolations.

The tree-specific drone data like canopy size, stress, transpiration, etc are used together with an accurate tree count to provide an extrapolated figures of:

• Total nuts per orchard, and

• Average nuts per tree.

With a general idea (or trusty formula) that indicated what weight a certain number of nuts should be (for example 100 fresh nuts = X-kg’s) one can get a very good idea of tonnage per orchard or per hectare using the weighted extrapolation figures.

Additionally, and one of the most underrated outcomes of this exercise, is the opportunity to produces spacial information within the orchards. Where are trees bearing less, or more? Why? And then to compare nut count results against the drone data outputs for further analysis. In effect, taking action to address limiting factors and work on improving future yields and lowering orchard variance.

Conclusions:

Accurate yield forecasting in the nut industry has long been a challenge, with historical miscalculations leading to financial losses, supply chain disruptions, and misplaced market confidence.

Traditional models that rely heavily on historical data and early-season indicators often fail to account for unpredictable factors such as extreme weather, pest outbreaks, and shifting environmental conditions.

However, the integration of AI, remote sensing, and real-time data collection is reshaping how nut farmers approach forecasting.

In making use of AI-driven sampling, drone-based analysis, and real-time orchard monitoring, farmers can move beyond static predictions and adopt a dynamic, data-driven approach that continuously adapts to changing conditions.

Tools like Aerobotics’ TrueFruit app demonstrate the power of AI-assisted sampling and weighted extrapolations, ensuring that yield estimates remain as accurate as possible, even in the face of unforeseen challenges.

By embracing these technologies, the industry can reduce forecasting errors, improve market stability, and optimise resource management.

In an era where precision agriculture is becoming the standard, those who integrate AI and remote sensing into their forecasting strategies will gain a critical edge. Not just in yield prediction, but in overall farm profitability and sustainability.

The future of nut production is clear: technology and data-driven insights are no longer optional but essential for success.

And the tools are here to be used.
Contact me to find out how.

» Join me at the Amber Macs Expo 2025, where I will be presenting on AI and drone-backed yield forecasting techniques and strategies. Click the link above to see the program and where you can grab your tickets.

Read more:

No fancy multispectral or thermal sensors here folks…
But if there were only a handful of metrics I could use for Macadamia orchard monitoring and management, canopy area statistics would be among the top choices, no doubt about it!

When to avoid drone surveying for Macadamia canopy metrics

• FLOWERING STAGE:
  Late winter or spring it can often be a windy time of the year in several macadamia growing regions. This makes drone surveying complicated, and negatively impacts data quality simply due to wind induced canopy movement.

  Depending on the type of survey and sensors you are using, you might want to take advantage of other metrics as well. Thus, survey timing during flowering, may not be optimal. Multispectral or thermal sensors tend to provide you with false negatives or positives during this time of season. Bloom colours can skew multispectral data. And we definitely see elevated "stress" at this time of season. And as flowers transpire, thermal data is affected as well.
  
  Unless you are doing a very specific type of survey, try to avoid the flowering stage. “Special case” surveys may be something like monitoring blossom densities or "full bloom" timing from the air. An exercise well suited to crops that flower before they go through vegetative bud-break, such as deciduous crops. For example pome-fruit (apples, pears, quinces) and stone-fruit (peaches, nectarines, cherries, almonds).

  
  

• PRE-HARVEST:
  Basically, when trees are laden with nuts. Why this is not an ideal time to monitor canopies specifically is because the crop itself can pull branches downward. And when seen from the air, the tree canopy will likely be reported as larger than it really is. You will often see this on younger trees bearing their first “big” crop, where main branches are thinner and easily affected by the extra weight of the nuts. A good time for yield scouting (also covered in my book) but too late for canopy monitoring drone surveys. Surveying a little later (post harvest) or earlier (nut set) will provide you with much better data.

  
  

• DURING / AFTER PRUNING:

  Oftentimes a mistake that can easily be made by the uninformed. A late-season survey conducted far too late. Why do some conduct surveys after post-harvest pruning? Because they either have the time (finally!) or they feel like they can better afford the spend on utilising drone tech (post-harvest cashflow). But this is simply due to poor survey planning, mostly driven by FOMO, or a lack of patience. Or a pushy salesman neglecting to keep the farmer's best interests at heart. Stick to your strategy; and only survey at the right times, and where you will be sure to get the best ROI on your spend.
  

  Another reason why pruning time is not the best time to survey, is because you skew canopy variance statistics. If you want to monitor variance / canopy homogeneity - or to plan variable rate applications - you want to do that with a full un-pruned canopy. Without flowering. Without an excessive crop. All things "being equal" and growth phases as "balanced" across most of the orchards, as best possible.
  

  Also, pruning brings about added stress (which is to be expected). And if conducting multispectral surveys at the same time as your canopy monitoring survey, you will definitely pick up elevated stress metrics. The multispectral info will provide false red-flags - and ones you won't want to waste your time worrying about.
  

  The only time you would want to survey late in the season, after pruning, would be to monitor pruning effectiveness/accuracy itself. Are the orchard canopies homogenous? Did the pruning team get the trees down to the planned size, or structure? Where are the gaps, where do I have missing trees?
  
  For intensive high-density plantings it can be difficult to identify individual trees. With some pruning this is often a lot easier. But remember, only relevant if surveys are looking into post-pruning status, or tree census concerns, and not canopy monitoring or variance management.

So to recap...

All these times deemed “not to survey” are nice-to-have timings.

If the expense and time spent surveying (as well as time spent analysing post-survey data) are not concerns for you, by all means conduct the extra surveys. But it’s not completely necessary.

Remember that with each additional survey, you get diminishing returns. Survey too often, and will feel inundated with data, and miss the big picture. Not only that, but you may struggle to find the time between surveys to action any interventions developed off the back of the previous survey results.

Conduct surveys early-season (after flowering) and post-harvest (before pruning) for the best data ROI. These are optimal times for that first drone survey. Utilising canopy metrics at the right time, for precise orchard management.

So when should you survey?

Your canopy monitoring surveys can be broken down into two important surveys:

• The initial drone survey.

• The follow-up surveys.

The initial survey provides a baseline scan as well as a real-time orchard status overview.

The survey should be timed after any flowering has stopped, or post-harvest before pruning. So that’s 2 best timings to note, and each will be more or less relevant depending on your goals. Any of these could be your initial survey, and follow-up surveys would be timed to match, a year later each year.

• Early Season (nut-set / nut-drop)

• Late Season (post-harvest)

If you are monitoring younger orchards not yet in production, aim to time surveys according to phenology charts depicting when they would likely be at nut set/nut-drop. For the Southern Hemisphere this is usually mid-October to mid-December.

The later survey option (post-harvest) offers less time for intervention in the same season which would affect yield, but will provide data that could be used to optimise for the next season’s yield or orchard management decisions.

Likewise, if your orchard is young, aim for the time of season you would expect to harvest in the future once the trees are in full production. In the Souther Hemisphere this is usually mid-February to well into June for later areas and cultivars.

Extra notes on survey timing…

Understandably, drone survey timing is challenging across larger operations. Especially as certain cultivars have differing flowering starts and ends. ie) early varieties versus late varieties.

However, there should be a time in the season where most (if not all) cultivars on-farm are in the same phenological stage. This is how you want to time your surveys, either all cultivars at nut set, or all cultivars post harvest (before any pruning).

Being flexible by a week or two is also important as well. You will probably need to take the weather into account, and that flexibility helps. Keep it in mind.

Note, these are canopy monitoring and management drone surveys. For multispectral surveys, or surveys aimed at monitoring stress levels, water use, or all of the before mentioned, remember to take into account leaf flush and root flush timings to get the most from your surveys. I cover all these factors and timing considerations in my upcoming book on drone surveying for macadamia farming.

More about follow-up surveys…

In terms of canopy area it's imperative to obtain a real-time status (initial survey) as well as monitor changes (those that follow).

The follow-up canopy-growth monitoring surveys are important too, and perhaps even more so, once you have that baseline survey in the bag. The value of drone surveys imply compounds over time, especially when conducting year-on-year surveys.

While the first survey provides a large base of information, the follow-on survey adds new value. Farmers get an updated "real time" homogeneity snapshot and surveys can be compared to gauge orchard management effectiveness. ie. How well did your work in-field this past season turn into the results you planned for?

Simply put, the follow-on survey offers a comparison. And if the first survey was a benchmark, the second is what you’d measure against it.

The third against the first two combined, etc.
In this way, an average benchmark norm is created as well.

With ongoing effort, the “norm” is steered into the direction of your ideal outcome.
Ideal outcomes are achieved through acting on the data. It’s a cycle.

This journey to perfection represents measurable progress.

Even better… Progress pairs perfectly with sustainability frameworks, resilience, reducing input costs, self-reliance, risk mitigation strategies, and all that good stuff.

Comparisons offer feedback on intervention effectiveness, and any canopy variance changes. Canopy growth monitoring is important where younger trees need to "fill out" vegetatively. And it’s important to keep tabs on these statistics ahead of new plantings coming into production (and finally paying for themselves!) as they move toward their potential to produce more and more nuts for years to come.

Follow-on surveys are also useful to gauge how trees have responded to pruning done in the past. Pruning for shape and structure. For that central leader, or light penetration, and the like. Not to mention identifying factors in-field limiting canopy growth and influencing nut quality and yield.

Follow on surveys also help in gauging fertiliser program or watering strategy effectiveness. Bio-stimulant use, the effects of tailored IPM strategies, where you need to work on soil health, address drainage issues, etc, and the list goes on.

Empowered with actual canopy metrics, variance stats, and quantifiable areas of concern, it’s 100% possible and plausible to enhance your orchard canopy management strategies.

Exact areas (hectares / acres) or exact numbers of trees that require attention are easily obtained. Record keeping is immaculate. Canopy management action-plans are structured and well thought out. More proactive, and less reactive.

My favourite go-to solution for my Macadamia farmers?
The Macadamia ready Aerobotics platform.

Insanely powerful AgTech solutions.
(practically an unfair advantage)

Fancy a demo?
Reach out to me today for a chat.

🎓 If you’d like to learn more about drone flight timing, and some of the other drone data metrics used in precision macadamia farming, consider enrolling into one of my free email short-courses.

You Might Also Like:

2022 Headlines...

"The macadamia industry has offered highly attractive investment opportunities during the past few years. With prices increasing significantly and an apparently insatiable demand, the crop has provided good returns for farmers..." - Farmer’s Weekly (South Africa)

2023 Headlines...

"After decades of growth, there are now concerns that demand for macadamias might have peaked. Prices have fallen for the first time in almost ten years as supply has increased..." - Adama (Syngenta Group)

The 2024 reality...

A multitude of industry-wide factors are at play this season - as always. And it’s a delicate game of tug-of-war between market forces.

The market experienced a significant downturn in 2023 due to low prices and reduced yields. But 2024 hints at a promising rebound. The current sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Positive signs of recovery exist though; all while uncertainty seems to lurk around every corner.

AUSTRALIA - Macadamia producers have forecast a crop increase of 16% compared to the previous year. Reaching about 56,000 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture. The improvement driven by favourable growing conditions and a positive grower sentiment. A smaller crop produced in 2023 has also normalised levels of kernel inventory, heading into 2024.

“2024 is looking like a better season, with good conditions experienced during flowering ... While recent rainfall in some regions will make the start of harvest a little challenging. With good growing conditions we expect to see an improvement in kernel recoveries, which is very encouraging.”
- Clare Hamilton-Bate, CEO at Australian Macadamia Society

SOUTH AFRICA - The World's largest producer of macadamia nuts, is anticipating a 14% increase in production. From 78091 tons dry-nut-in-shell last year, to 90135 tons in 2024. This would keep South Africa in the number one spot for macadamia nut production.

The Global Macadamias sales team travel has been traveling extensively over the past few months. As a prominent processor and exporter located in South Africa, they keep a close eye on market trends and sentiment. Their team visited key macadamia nut markets in regions such as Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. They believe we are now entering a phase of increased stability in supply and demand. This bodes well for the future of all macadamia nut stakeholders, especially as they recover from the historic lows of 2023.

"The feedback we received was consistent: demand has increased, leading to higher prices," reports Roelof van Rooyen, Director of Global Macadamias.

Globally, the market is experiencing increased demand, particularly from the U.S., China, and Europe, leading to a general price increase of 10% to 20%. Ultimately, this depends on crack-out style, size, and quality. Similar to the situation in Australia, much of the 2023 inventory (in-shell inventory) bought by China, has made for a low starting supply. With relative scarcity and a general increase in demand, prices are starting to rise.

Although the South African macadamia industry’s most important export partner, China, has dramatically ramped up domestic planting ...with 2020’s estimate of 240'000 projected hectares reaching 300'000ha by 2030... low macadamia prices last year prompted many farmers to sell directly to China.

The Chinese demand for healthier snacks has significantly contributed to this demand. This in-shell demand has created a tighter supply for kernels, as more nuts ship as in-shell rather than processed for kernels. While reduced kernel supply increases prices... vast export quantities of in-shell could undermine local industry sustainability.

"Meeting China's demand for macadamias was positive for the industry last year as it helped to clear warehouse stocks. But over the long term South Africa needs to maintain a robust processing industry so that we are not over reliant on a single market, which in the case of China, is increasingly becoming self sufficient," cautions Shane Hartman, CEO of Global Macadamias.

KENYA - Thanks to favourable weather conditions improving both yield and quality, is expected to recover with a 12% production boost in 2024 compared to the year prior. However, with shifts in market dynamics, export policy changes have been impacting local pricing structures.

China's imports from Kenya have notably surged, growing 20.8 times in the past three years . This growth underscores Kenya's rising prominence in the international macadamia market. A significant portion of its produce being exported, with 93% of its total output being sold to overseas markets. The main export destinations include: the U.S., Germany, Netherlands, mainland China, and Hong Kong.

Consumer Awareness and Nut Quality

The World Macadamia Organisation is doing well to drive macadamia awareness. This includes awareness around health benefits, and around what makes this one of the best (if not the best) nuts around. A strong marketing push from The House of Macadamias, and Dan Mace have also made a big impact on awareness both in South Africa and in areas such as the US. Dan is a creative and visionary, Filmmaker, Youtuber, and Chief Creative Officer for Beast Philanthropy.

Macadamias are a superfood that forms just 2% of the total nut market, so while there is cause for short-term concern, there is certainly room for recovery long term, if a sound marketing strategy is employed. - Jillian Laing, CEO of the World Macadamia Organisation (as noted in 2022)

As consumers become educated in what a high quality macadamia nut is all about, they expect to get quality produce for their spend. And as quality will fetch the best prices this year, and in the seasons to come, it's worth a farmer's while to produce a quality crop.

Excluding consumer demand and production supply, several factors are contributing to quality yields. Namely sound practice, new technologies, and smart farming methods. These factors together influence crack-out style, size, and the kernel quality of macadamia nuts to a large extent.

Common Knowledge + New Technologies

In terms of output and quality; which factors, technologies and farming methods are important for macadamia farmers? Below I explore a few that come to mind.

Factors

Climate and Soil Conditions:

• Optimal climate conditions with well-distributed rainfall and mild temperatures are ideal for macadamias. The ideal temperature for macadamia nut farming is between 16 and 25C, and the nut quality is superior when grown at an altitudes of 600m or lower.

• It is vital to consider soil characteristics such as fertility, pH levels, organic content, and water retention. Macadamias prefer deep, fertile, soils with a pH of 5.0-6.5. It's important to consider soil samples when planning a farm and selecting the land intended for growing macadamia trees.

• It's also important to ensure that soils in any macadamia farming area are not only as deep as possible, but well-drained. Well-drained, fertile soils rich in organic matter enhance nut quality, and reduce the risk of soil borne diseases like Phytophthora.

Orchard Management:

• Regular planned pruning to manage tree height and shape helps ensure good light penetration and air circulation. Both of which are vital for good flowering, nut quality and size. Good air circulation furthermore lowers the risk of pathogen issues in the canopy.

“Pruning the fruit bearing trees is crucial for opening up the canopy to allow sunlight in, to improve spray efficacy and allow for the development of the bearing wood for the next season’s crop. - Andrew Sheard, Mayo Macs

• Proactive work focused on reducing orchard variance across a host of metrics is key. This ensures a more homogenous orchard regarding tree health, and canopy characteristics. Low variation orchards are easier to manage, and ensure crop estimates are not a shot-in-the-dark set of guesstimates.

Technologies

Precision Agriculture:

• Remote sensing - Using drones and satellite imagery to monitor tree health and stress. Drone data specifically can also provide insights into soil health. These bird's-eye view maps and statistics help farmers to make data-backed decisions. Quick interventions are the name of the game. And follow-on surveys gauge intervention effectiveness. In-Data interpretation based field work might include changes to irrigation, fertilisation, and pruning. Drone data can ultimately help to enhance nut size and quality​ when used properly. Each drone survey is in essence a data investment. Real time value as well as important archival information.

  

• Smart sampling - Drone data provides the means to plan precise in-field sample points. Areas of concern are assigned waypoints for inspections and scouting. The "smart sampling" use cases include: soil, leaf, and profile-pit sampling locations. Sample route waypoints are tailored on either zonal or per-tree information, or auto-generated.

• Variable Rate Applications - An innovative way to apply inputs, becoming increasingly popular. Sprays, Granular’s, or organics are variably applied according to a drone-data metric datasets. Zonal canopy area maps, tree volumes, stress metrics, and so forth. In this way, farmers are able to decrease input costs substantially. All while improving orchard homogeneity. Vehicle options include spray rigs, granular spreaders, spray drones, bio-spreaders, and autonomous units.

  Examples: Aerobotics (drone data), John Deere (spraying), Red Ant (granular), DJI Agras T50 (spray drone), Agri-Spread (Bio-spreading), GUSS (autonomous)

Automated Irrigation Systems:

• High-tech irrigation systems such as drop irrigation, ensure optimal water distribution. Reducing water stress on trees and improving nut development and quality. Smart irrigation systems can adjust water application based on soil moisture levels.

• In-field strategies used to determine soil moisture (and scheduling irrigation accordingly) are commonplace. Tensiometers and capacitance probes, etc. Furthermore, monitoring of the weather conditions. (i.e. the variables that influence tree evapotranspiration). Weather Stations add an additional layer of data, enabling precise watering strategies. Example: Netafim
  

  Nutrient Management Systems:

  • Advanced soil testing and nutrient management software. These can help farmers apply the right amount of fertilisers, at the right time. Strategic nutrient management improves the overall health of the trees. Nutrient management software can also utilise remote sensing information and inform VRA strategies. Example: Traction

  Technological advancements are paving the way to better more precise practices. However, in the context of Macadamia farming specifically we are still in the early days. Select few are taking advantage of all the new-age innovations out there. But the vast majority are slow to catch-on.
  
  This is a real pity, as Macadamia trees respond well to targeted and precise interventions. And due to their growth habit, and cultivation areas, are well suited for remote sensing. This is especially apparent with regards to water use.
  
  An excerpt from a recent publication on the topic sums it up well:

"A number of promising technological innovations could further help to improve the sustainability of water management in macadamia orchards. For instance, better weather forecasts through improved climatic models would help to plan irrigation accordingly. Similarly, the increasing availability of more affordable weather stations and soil moisture probes shall facilitate the on-field monitoring of climatic conditions and soil water dynamics.

Remote sensing and especially aerial photography are likely to play an increasingly important role, since they are proving to be very useful and labour-friendly tools to detect problems in the orchard.

Farm management apps and portals will facilitate sharing information between macadamia growers and consultants. ...In fact, according to macadamia expert Barry Christie, although increasing, the adoption by macadamia growers of most of the above-mentioned innovations is still low.”

- Management Options for Macadamia Orchards with Special Focus on Water Management and Ecosystem Services (Sina M. Weier, Et al.)

Farming Methods

Integrated Pest Management (IPM):

• Pest and disease control is a crucial aspect of macadamia nut farming. Macadamia trees are susceptible to various pests and diseases. These risks can significantly impact the yield and quality of the final crop.

• Macadamia specific IPM strategies, include biological control, selective pesticide use, and cultural practices. These help manage pest populations and reduce damage to yields. Advanced training courses help farmers in utilising the latest in scouting techniques. While guided scouting platforms and mobile applications increase efficiencies and efficacy. Examples: Centre for Excellence (training), Land Diary (guided scouting)

Cover-cropping and Mulching:

• Using cover crops and organic mulches helps to maintain soil moisture. Improved soil fertility, and a reduction in weed competition. Practices contribute to improved water use, and enhanced soil health over time. Healthier soil makes for healthier trees and better nut quality​ and yields.

• Cover cropping not only protects the soil, but helps the land to sequester rainfall. This prevents excess run-off, as well as topsoil erosion. Cover crops can easily be turned into mulches by rolling, or "mowing and blowing" to the sides of tree rows. Examples: Ritlee (mowers), Weed Discs (coconut coir mulching discs)
  

Regular Harvesting Practices:

• Timely and frequent harvesting reduces the risk of fallen nuts becoming contaminated or damaged. Additionally, proper handling and storage post-harvest are critical to maintaining nut quality​. Nuts with husks removed should cure in drying bins on-farm for at least five days. And nuts delivered to the processing plants or depots should be at a moisture content (MC%) of 10% or less.

“Mature nuts should be harvested every 7-10 days and de-husked on the same day. Nuts left in their husks can increase their temperature significantly if left for longer than 24 hours.” - Andrew Sheard, Mayo Macs

Overall, the outlook for the macadamia nut market in 2024 is positive. Rising production and recovering prices indicate a period of greater stability ahead. We may see significant growth for the industry in the coming months as a result.

By integrating technologies, and farming methods, macadamia farmers can enhance the crack-out style, size, and quality of their nuts. Ultimately leading to higher market values and better returns on their efforts on-farm.

Further reading:

• Macadamia nut prices rebound worldwide - Lindi Botha (Fresh Plaza)

• Outlook positive for 2024 Australian macadamia crop - Australian Macadamias

• Macadamia Sector Trends: Global Production Upswing and Market Price Dynamics - Cardassilaris

• China Ramps Up Walnut, Macadamia & Pecan Production - Pacific Nut Producer

• The Rise of Macadamia Production in KZN - Lindi Botha (Farmer’s Weekly)

• Macadamia Farming in South Africa - Adama

• A Comprehensive Guide to Macadamia Nut Farming in South Africa - SCTIE

I’ve been interested in bees and their role in nature (and in agriculture) for longer than I can remember. Completely fascinated as a child; even more so as an adult.

A few years ago through my my work with Aerobotics we adopted a beehive in the Western Cape of South Africa. An initiative that’s part of a broader project, to help local bee populations, as well as the local communities. An adoption donation that keeps on giving season after season - what’s not to love?

Find out more about Honeybee Heroes over here: https://www.honeybeeheroes.com/adopt

Anyway, with that little preface and tangent out of the way, I’d like to hover our attention over to a recent Bee Friendly Farming video that caught my eye this week.

This article is based on that video, and highlights the essence of this particular macadamia farm’s sustainable practices, emphasising their dedication to bee health and biodiversity.

Thankfully, their work is not an isolated case neither in Australia nor other macadamia growing regions like South Africa. But it’s a great case to share, and I’m particularly fond of the mention of wild spaces and corridors for native species of plants to subsidise bee populations in the months where macadamias are not flowering

By focusing on these key elements, and others, the farm not only ensures its own productivity but also contributes to the broader goal of environmental sustainability. - Again, what’s not to love?

Led by horticulturist Chris Cannizzaro, Macadamia Farm Management is committed to promoting bee health and implementing innovative solutions to ensure the sustainability and productivity of their orchards. This article delves into their approach, highlighting efforts to integrate native Australian stingless bees, enhance biodiversity, and support pollination through Bee Friendly Farming.

In the lush landscape of Queensland, Australia, the PHC Property Trust farm stands as a beacon of sustainable agricultural practices, particularly in the mac industry.

Embracing Native Stingless Bees

Macadamia Farm Management is home to approximately 350 hectares of macadamia trees, housing over 100,000 individual trees. To ensure effective pollination, the farm operates with two to five hives per hectare, strategically placed to cover the entire farm.

In Queensland, native stingless bees, particularly the Tetragonula species, play a crucial role. Macadamia Farm Management has embarked on a breeding program to distribute these native bees across different farms. This initiative not only enhances pollination but also supports the preservation of local bee species, aligning with their commitment to sustainable farming.

The Importance of Bee Friendly Farming

Bee Friendly Farming certification has been instrumental for Macadamia Farm Management. By adopting Bee Friendly Farming practices, they aim to improve Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and build a more natural and efficient pollination system.

Supporting Biodiversity and Pollinator Health

One of the key strategies employed by Macadamia Farm Management (MFM) is the diversification of flora on the farm. Through several tree planting grants, they have been able to plant various species, extending the flowering period throughout the year. This approach provides bees with a continuous source of food, ensuring their strength and productivity during the critical macadamia flowering season.

To further support pollinator health, the farm has designated specific areas for bee-friendly flora. These include native remnant bush surrounds around dams and creek lines. Such biodiversity not only benefits bees but also other pollinators like beneficial wasps and syrphid flies (hover flies), creating a balanced ecosystem that enhances overall farm productivity.

Implementing Sustainable Farming Practices

MFM takes several measures to ensure the health and safety of their local bees:

• Hive placement is carefully planned to avoid interference from equipment and machinery.

• The farm maintains open communication with neighbouring farms to prevent the spread of diseases and minimise exposure to any harmful chemicals.

• Planting bee-friendly flora along fence-lines and other non-productive areas. This not only provides bees with diverse food sources but also contributes to the overall health of the ecosystem.

• The farm's efforts to bolster tree-lines with flora supporting various pollinators underscore their commitment to sustainable and responsible farming.

Challenges and Future Goals

The warm climate of central Queensland presents unique challenges for bee maintenance. Unlike in Europe, where bees have a dormant period during winter, Queensland’s bees are active year-round. This requires continuous efforts to ensure they have adequate food, water, and protection from diseases.

Looking ahead, MFM aims to enhance biodiversity further by incorporating more native bees and other pollinators into their ecosystem. By fostering a diverse range of pollinators, they hope to create a resilient and productive environment that can withstand various challenges.

MFM's holistic approach to promoting bee health and sustainability serves as a model for the agricultural industry. By integrating native bees, supporting biodiversity, and implementing Bee Friendly Farming practices, they demonstrate a commitment to responsible and eco-friendly farming.

As the demand for sustainable agricultural practices continues to grow, the efforts of farms like Macadamia Farm Management pave the way for a greener and more sustainably productive future. 🐝

Further reading:

• Cross-Pollination Benefits in Macadamias - Red Sun HortiTech: https://redsunhort.com/2023/10/13/cross-pollination-benefits-in-macadamias/

• AMS Podcast: Pollination in macadamias – Australian Macadamia Society:

• Macadamia Flowers Explained - The Macadamia Magazine:
  https://themacadamia.co.za/2020/07/28/macadamia-flowers-explained/

One of the most groundbreaking innovations has been the utilisation of drones to replace (or accompany) various farming operations. 

In particular, the use of drones in macadamia farming has emerged as a noticeable game-changer.

With expansive orchard territories, and rising costs of inputs, there’s a fine line being drawn between that which simply works “well enough” and that which is reliable, works really well, and fast.

A summary of the 4 big reasons I think drones are a perfect fit:

1. Support Data-backed Decisions

2. Efficient and Cost-Effective Monitoring

3. Support Environmental Sustainability Efforts

4. Precise High-Resolution Information Compared to Alternatives

For example, in-field soil and leaf sample collections are being guided by drone survey metrics for sampling in areas representing poor, medium, and best performing zones, or to locate individual trees.

This approach not only works with the idea of precision farming but improves on in-field efficiencies and paves the way for data-backed decision making based on data-backed first principles. 

Similarly, Macadamia nut quality or nut-in-husk size sampling, is being conducted quickly and easily via AI-generated sample tree locations (AKA Smart Sampling).

Sample points are generated working off actual drone survey metrics, providing exact waypoints for in-field collections from trees that are the most representative in terms of the orchard.

Methods like these are critical for weighted extrapolations that provide holistic orchard figures and accurate per-orchard information better than any thumb-suck or seasoned glance at the orchard could possibly provide.

Best of all, drone-based solutions are not only proving useful in conjunction with traditional practices, but UAV solutions can be stacked into a suite of high-impact technological aids.

An example of leveraging a multi-layer tech plan (AKA Solution Stacking) would be something like:

1. Make use of drone surveys to pick up high stress zones.

2. A targeted in-field inspection is done, revealing a nutrient deficiency, or pest prevalence above a predetermined threshold.

3. A spraying drone is deployed to apply foliar feed fertiliser, bio-stimulants, growth inhibitors, pest control bait, etc… either broadly in zones, variably across the field, or by way of spot-spraying.

Additionally… Drones can be deployed to administer beneficial insects (predatory insects) to an area swiftly an efficiently where there’s an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategy that calls for it.

This is opposed to the spraying or baiting approach - or doing hand-releases - and the choice of application would be scenario specific.

However, release by drone can be done across orchards, quickly. The costs are comparable to hand-releases (cost of insects) and oftentimes come in more affordable with bulk orders.

Using tech in ways like these frees up labour capacity, enhances the effectiveness of resources. And stacking applicable tech solutions is fast becoming the new norm.

With drone technologies that support farming operations, one can take as broad or as granular approach as is necessary or feasible.

As always, we need to take into account costs, time, expertise, and hardware / Service provider availability.

Tech-stacking solutions, and pairing these with in-field operations and “on-paper” strategies can bring about some amazing results. 

Drone use in farming is all about using leverage (with streamlined interoperability) for increased efficiencies and optimal efficacy of any efforts. Particularly resources spent on improving orchard performance overall.

When executed correctly, drone use and farming can prove to be a true ROI value creation machine.

Together with sustainable practices, I am convinced that this type of machine will stand the test of time.

Have you heard?

There’s a new macadamia-specific book coming out.
Drone use, and all the specifics you need to know to get the most out of the tech.

Join the waiting list and get notified as soon as it gets published.

There’s also a free online course to accompany the book, based on all of the best content, with concise summaries of each chapter, and covering all the main concepts.

Join the Waiting List

Sure, there are ground-based drones, and water-based drones, but to make it clear I’m only focusing on those flying through the air.

While drones offer numerous benefits for macadamia farmers specifically, I’m going to pause here and mention that it's important to acknowledge that they may not always be the best option for every farming situation. 

One of the primary limitations of drones is their initial cost, which can be prohibitive for small-scale farmers or those operating on tight budgets.  Additionally, drones require skilled operators to ensure they are used effectively, which may pose a challenge for farmers without access to professional service providers (certified pilots), or who may lack training or technical support - for those literally flying their own drones on-farm. 

Furthermore, adverse weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, can limit the ability of drones to operate effectively, potentially impacting their reliability in certain environments - not to mention added frustrations when flight surveys do not go as smoothly as envisioned. Oftentimes there is a distinct disjoint between the dream of flying and the reality on the ground - or in the air should I say. 

Despite the challenges, ongoing advancements in drone technology, increasing affordability and availability, improved technical support, and the growing number of professional service providers available, means that most of these challenges are being addressed, making drones an increasingly viable option for macadamia farmers looking to leverage a basket of technologies and optimise their orchard management practices. 

Distinct Advantages Include:

• Precision Aerial Surveys (high-resolution, pin-point data accuracies)

• Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness (quick to deploy, fast turnarounds)

• Data-Driven Decision Making (reliable, quantitative information)

• Environmental Sustainability (short, medium, and longterm ROI potential)

UAV development (and their subsequent use) is speeding up fast, and it doesn’t seems to be slowing down - at least not yet. 

Buckle up - the revolution has begun. 
But what are we in for exactly?

Only time will tell.
But there are hints…

Did you hear?

There’s a new book coming out!
Join the waiting list and get notified as soon as it gets published.

There’s also a free online course, that covers all of the content in the new book, with concise summaries of each chapter, covering all the main concepts.

The waiting list for the free course will open right after the book launches, so sign-up to the book launch waiting list to be notified.

Subscribe now

We have entered into a new farming era, where digital advancements are meeting Mother Nature head-on. 

So I’ve decided to write about it (more).
Quite likely, this will be a protracted set of ramblings lasting at least a few blog posts.

Mostly about the effective and practical use of Drones (in the sky and over the land) and the fine (read: noble) art of Macadamia Farming.

Did you hear?

There’s a new book coming out!
Join the waiting list and get notified as soon as it gets published.

There’s also a free online course, that covers all of the content in the new book, with concise summaries of each chapter, covering all the main concepts.

The waiting list for the free course will open right after the book launches, so sign-up to the book launch waiting list to be notified. 1

Why now?

A quick look online, and you can find some wonderful stories, blog posts, marketing videos, and feel-good social media clips around AgTech and farming - and even within the context of actual Macadamia production! - but nothing tangible that guides and teaches in a natural way; in an easy format to consume for both production experts keen to bolster their knowledge base, or aspiring farm managers and graduate newbies hungry for job-specific high-impact insights. 

However, newfound knowledge (as well as our misconceptions around ecosystems, plant health & soil health) and concerted efforts aimed at the regeneration of biodiversity, are colliding within a man-made multiverse of tech solutions. It can often be confusing and overwhelming.

1

Waiting list direct link:
https://agtech-diaries.ck.page/5c071d4712

https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaEEykb5K3zOJKxTVR0m

I’m sharing about 2-3 links a week, only things I find interesting, maybe even fun.

Perhaps you’ll like these too?

Have an amazing week,
Ken

Join the Channel

A host of challenging conditions domestically and across markets have pressured producers and all industry stakeholders with rising input costs, ongoing load-shedding, strain on demand, and deteriorating municipal service delivery, corruption in public offices, and setbacks across network industries including roads, rail, and ports - a thorn in the side of the food and beverage industries that have constrained agribusinesses for some time.

A balance of technology, engineering, and tailored expertise can mitigate and curb inefficiencies across these networks and simultaneously enhance, improve, or wholly take the place of traditional operational practices that were born in an era less fraught with such an diverse mix of pressures we are experiencing today. 

Aerobotics, one of South Africa's most celebrated AgriTech startups, supports farmers globally with ground-breaking innovation-forward solutions created by the brightest minds in software, data, and vision engineering.

Using drone-derived aerial imagery, cloud-computing, and AI powered mobile apps to bring digital intelligence and precision agricultural tools to producers; adding a higher level of certainty to the interface between farm, pack house, marketers, and exporters. 

A significant pressure on farmers has been the sharp increase in costs of doing business, which has eaten away at margins, and slowed progress for new agribusinesses or those looking to expand, mechanise, or digitise sections of their production operations. 

Digital tools offer a tremendous amount of consumer surplus, especially where solutions solve specific pain points. Paired with a comparatively low barrier to entry and machine learning, digital tools engineered for optimised ways of farming have a marked impact on mitigating the significant pressures all farmers face.

With Aerobotics’ release of their new yield management tools - now available for use by macadamia nut production teams and marketers - farmers can now measure, manage, and protect their fruit and nut yields directly from a cloud-based platform and a smartphone.

Watch: Ken chats with the Lucentlands team about all things Aerobotics

An all-new mobile app focused on yield monitoring using AI, allowing producers to digitally collect fruit (and nut) count info and size measurements with ease in-field, enabling them to collect data at sample points that are AI generated off the back of tree insights gained from a drone survey.

Sample waypoints are more representative than ever before; ushering in a new layer of added precision to sample collections. Data collection is seamless, and happens at a higher frequency than traditional means with zero pen-and-paperwork or double and triple data captures which would inevitably introduce human error into an otherwise critical set of data collection steps that inform on real-time and forecasted yield insights. 

Read more:

The increased efficiencies allow producers to take action at the ideal time to manipulate your crop load, and in turn fruit sizes. Obtaining the right sized fruit for the preferred market demand, at the highest quality possible is top priority.

The Aerobotics AI tools have been specifically engineered to address these priorities and build in a level of insurance against a reduced return on investment taking into account the sharp rise in input costs and a challenging farming environment for all. 

The significance of data engineered and vision engineered AI powered solutions is far reaching. The Aerobotics mission addresses sustainability challenges and one of the SDG goals of “Responsible Production and Consumption” by not only empowering producers but by assisting to reduce waste.

Waste is a massive problem in the areas like the citrus industry - by helping farms to not only get their produce to the right size at harvest, but also leverage specifically engineered digital tools as an important asset in their toolbox for improving the quality of their yields. Managing stress and variance in orchards or vineyards - all with added precision. 

Insights into yield paired with drone surveys and industry expertise helps farmers to better manage nutrition programs (including rising inputs), water management, and empower staff with powerful tools they can use to make a real impact on their industries.

Main areas of cultivation include Australia (the home of the Macadamia), Hawaii, Southern Africa, and parts of Asia.

This sought-after, nutritious, and delectable nut currently makes up a tiny portion of total nut consumption around the world, competing for market share alongside the popular and mainstream nut types we all know and enjoy such as walnuts, pecans, pistachios, hazelnuts, and almonds.

Although several sources (like this one) state that “some” macadamia nuts are produced by African countries, this is a massive understatement as South Africa alone is the world leader in Macadamia nut production (2021 stats), with countries like Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi being other top producers on the continent.

Southern African territories is where most of my experiential knowledge about macadamia farming comes from, although I do some liaising with key contacts in places like Australia and the US from time to time.

All my knowledge outside of "in-field" experiences is largely gleaned from my own online and literary research into Macadamia farming, UAV tech, and Mac farming best practices - although the more I read, the more I realise said practices are ever-changing and guidelines are always improving as we learn more and more about this unique crop.

All in all, one has to admit that large-scale farming of macadamias has come a long way in the past few decades, and in the past couple years especially so, mainly in terms of leveraging new-age technologies. And it’s about time.... With the need to cultivate high-value crops (read: highly nutritious crops) at scale for an ever-growing world population, farmers are continuing to leverage available and developing technologies for increased and sustainable yields.

This is no different for macadamia farmers, and there has been a steady uptick in use of remote in-field sensors, automated water distribution systems, climate sensors, variable rate applications, and overhead tree canopy scans via drone or satellite. Utilising these types of tech have become almost commonplace; especially for larger operations where the need to remotely monitor and manage vast tracts of land with fewer people is becoming the norm.

As the availability of precision agricultural technologies has improved (and access to both hardware and software) the roles, reliability, and rationale behind the use of UAVs in agriculture has become a trendy topic, often hotly debated, or in some instances simply dismissed as a fad by sceptics.

I’ve had the privilege of collaborating and working with various stakeholders along the complete Macadamia supply chain, and then some. This provides me with a unique view into how data is being leveraged for business optimisations in a variety of situations, and perspectives from both orchards and boardrooms alike is that new technologies in the AgTech world - especially drone technologies - are only at the tip of the iceberg in terms of value added to operations, with so much more to come.

My hope is to bring these insights and curiosities to the most resourceful of farmers and newbies alike, for the good of the macadamia industry all around the world. The possibilities that lie ahead of us offer us exciting and encouraging prospects of farming smarter and more sustainably each and every season. Join me as we delve into the wonderful world of drones and modern high-precision farming. 

Till next time,