Macadamia Market Recovery: Shifts, Challenges, and Opportunities
Global macadamia demand is rising fast - but supply chain bottlenecks, shifting consumption patterns, and AgTech-driven innovation are shaping recovery.
This is a follow-up on the blog post: Macadamia Market 2024: Recovery, Rising Yields, and Technology Shaping the Future
A Global Nut With Local Struggles
The macadamia industry is slowly emerging from one of its toughest downturns in recent memory. Prices hit historic lows in recent seasons, forcing many producers to re-think their strategies, cut input costs, or even exit the industry altogether.
Yet, as the dust settles, new opportunities are emerging. Opportunities that could redefine the sector’s trajectory. A steady upward trend.
On the one hand… consumption is growing - most notably in China, where demand has tripled since 2019. And on the other hand… structural bottlenecks remain - from limited market access for smallholders in Africa, to processing constraints in Hawaii, to high input costs in Australia.
The story of recovery is therefore not just about price; it is about resilience, adaptation, and innovation.
China: From Gifting to Everyday Snacking
No country illustrates the shift in consumption more than China. Once associated primarily with luxury gifting, macadamias are now entering everyday snacking occasions.
At the recent CFNA trade event, Professor Ma of Peking University highlighted their health credentials - rich in mono-unsaturated fats (MUFAs) and with a low glycemic index - while pointing to an unfortunate knowledge gap: that many Chinese consumers still perceive macadamias as “fattening.”
Closing this gap is now a strategic priority for the World Macadamia Organisation (WMO). Enhancing consumer understanding of nutritional benefits is central to sustaining long-term, high-value demand.
If successful, China could evolve from a gifting-driven market to the single largest engine of consistent, repeat consumption. A powerhouse in demand.
Farmers at the Forefront
While consumption drives headlines, realities on the ground tell a more nuanced story.
In Australia, among the world’s largest producers, investment in new plantings and advanced orchard technologies has positioned the industry at the cutting edge of mechanisation and efficiency. Yet growers remain exposed to volatile prices and rising input costs.
In Vietnam’s Lam Dong province, macadamia farming has lifted entire communities out of poverty, providing stable incomes and long-term resilience in rural economies.
In South Africa, new best-practice guides on canopy management and irrigation are helping producers extract more yield and quality from each hectare.
Endeavours to accelerate adoption of advanced AI-backed yield monitoring solutions - supported by leading local processors - underscores how they remain as one of the global leaders in terms of mac-related innovation.
Efficiency gains are now make-or-break for profitability. Continuing to utilising expertise and available tools that support optimisations remains key.
In Malawi, smallholders face unique constraints. A recent study found that insect pests (81%), diseases (34%), limited market access (33%), wind damage (25%), and inadequate advisory services (17%) remain major obstacles. Researchers propose targeted policy reforms to address these structural bottlenecks and improve farmer productivity.
In Hawaii, the bottleneck is not in the orchards but in the processing chain. Farmers often rely on a single dominant processor, limiting bargaining power. This dynamic underscores the importance of cooperative models and value-added strategies to ensure farmers capture the true value of their crop.
In Brazil, macadamia production spans several states - like São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Minas Gerais - yet remains modest in terms of global volumes. Innovative cropping methods such as coffee–macadamia intercropping and drip irrigation are helping overcome long payback periods and boost both yield and early returns.
In Zimbabwe, macadamia is for the most part still an emerging crop, with expansion taking place mainly in the eastern highlands where climatic conditions favour perennial nut production.
The sector is still young compared to South Africa or Australia, but momentum is building as investors and farmers see long-term export opportunities.
Cicada Agriculture exemplifies this shift, with over 800 hectares of macadamias under management and plans to scale output to 3,000–5,000 metric tons annually.What sets Cicada apart is its forward-thinking (and ongoing) integration of AgTech and regenerative practices.
The company uses drone-derived imagery, AI-powered analytics, and smart irrigation to manage orchards more precisely - while embedding macadamias within a broader regenerative system.
This blend of technology and sustainability is positioning Zimbabwe as an emerging player in the global macadamia landscape.
Value-Added Innovation
Beyond kernel exports, the sector is diversifying.
Cold-pressed macadamia oil for skincare, gluten-free flours, plant-based cheeses, and luxury branded snacks are gaining traction worldwide.
While not likely to surpass traditional uses for macadamia, the advancements in both manufacturing and marketing will be interesting to monitor.
Operations that integrating processing and branding - from cosmetics to food products, and repurposing output resources (like these Shisa briquettes) are in an enhanced positioned in terms of capturing consumer value.
Value-added products not only improve farm-level resilience for verticals, but also broaden demand channels that are less exposed to kernel price volatility - which will benefit all producers.
The Big Picture on Growth and Recovery
According to Research and Markets, the global macadamia market is experiencing steady expansion, driven by demand from Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, South Korea) and growing awareness of health benefits.
The macadamia ingredients market is valued at USD 3.2 billion in 2024, with forecasts projecting growth to USD 5.5 billion by 2032 - an annual growth rate of 8.25%. This outlook confirms that recovery is not only underway, but that opportunities exist for those prepared to adapt.
The road ahead rests on three interconnected factors:
Market education and consumer trust.
Especially in China, where awareness of health benefits could drive long-term demand that snowballs.Farmer empowerment.
From Malawi’s smallholders to Australia’s large-scale orchards, policies and partnerships must address systemic constraints both in-orchard and further along the chain.Diversification and AgTech innovation.
Leveraging technology is paramount. From precision irrigation, regenerative practices, drone data, and smart sampling platforms - the industry needs to utilise advancements to increase efficiency and resilience.
Building Resilience for the Long Term
Macadamia farming has always required patience. Trees take years to mature, and orchards can produce for generations. This long-view is still as important as ever.
The market is showing signs of recovery, but volatility is part of the reality we have to manage. Weather extremes, shifting demand, rising input costs, and evolving trade constraints means the industry at large cannot afford complacency.
What will set the foundation for long-term resilience is collaboration – not only between farmers and processors, but also with researchers, agronomists, and AgTech providers.
By combining better science with smarter technology, and aligning industry stakeholders around fairer and more transparent supply chains, the macadamia sector can continue to expand sustainably.
The opportunity is not just to sell more nuts, but to grow strong and resilient systems. Orchards that are managed with precision. Businesses that capture additional value through innovation. And regions that turn macadamias into a cornerstone of rural development.
The thinking starts here, but the real change starts when we take action.
References:
Market & Industry References
Bright Prospects for Macadamia Nuts in China – Produce Report
Macadamia Market Forecast 2025–2032 – Maximize Market Research
Regional & Farmer Case Studies
Macadamia Farming Lifts Lam Dong Out of Poverty – FreshPlaza
China Imports Kenyan Macadamias Despite Export Ban – FreshPlaza
Pruning and Irrigation Guide Boosts Yields – FreshPlaza, South Africa
Constraints for Smallholder Macadamia Farmers – PLOS ONE (Malawi)
AgCulture Podcast: Annie Ridgely on Hawaiian Macadamia Farming – YouTube
The Macadamia Capital Pioneering Brazil's AgTech Frontier: Dois Córregos